Previous studies on predicting the box-office performance of a movie using machine learning techniques have shown practical levels of predictive accuracy. Their works are technically-and methodologically-oriented, investigating what algorithms are better at predicting the movie performance. However, the accuracy of prediction model can also be elevated by taking other perspectives. For example, it is possible to increase the model accuracy by introducing unexplored features that might be related to the prediction of the outcomes. In this paper, we examine multiple approaches to improve the performance of the prediction model. First, we add a new feature derived from the theory of transmedia storytelling. Such theory-driven feature selection not only increases the forecast accuracy, but also enhances the interpretability of a prediction model. Second, we use an ensemble approach, which has rarely been adopted in the research on predicting box-office performance. As a result, the proposed model, Cinema Ensemble Model (CEM), outperforms the prediction models from the past studies using machine learning algorithms. We suggest that CEM can be extensively used for industrial experts as a powerful tool for improving decision-making process.2
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.