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In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the USA between January 1971 and December 2008. Our purpose is to fi nd events or variables that affect Taiwan's international tourism. We fi nd that the Chinese New Year has a positive effect on tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, but negative effects for other countries. Through outlier detection, we obtain a better understanding of the effects of non-recurring events that have impacted Taiwan's international tourism. Using transfer function model with automatic outlier detection and adjustment, we fi nd that the exchange rate infl uences tourist arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong.

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