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Passenger departure volume is a vital index of railway station, which has very important significance to the organization station passenger transportation work. Aiming at the influences and characteristics of railway passenger flow, the Grey Model is applied to forecast annual passenger departure volume of railway station. Then, according to the fluctuating regularity of the passenger flow in each month, the monthly proportional coefficient method is used to predict passenger flow volume of each month. The case shows that the forecasting method putting forward in this paper has many advantages, such as low forecasting error, high accuracy, easy to calculate, and good maneuverability, and so on. It can supply accurate and reliable reference for the determination of railway station passenger transport plan and daily organization of passenger transport work, so as to assist decision-maker to make correct and reasonable decisions.

Abstract. The evaluation of urban rail transit plan network is the key link of rail transit plan, it is very important for determining optimal plans or satisfying plans which are advanced in technology, reasonable in economy, and feasible in implementation. Based on the analysis of present evaluation index systems and evaluation methods of urban rail transit plan network, the index system is optimized, and the evaluation model of urban rail transit plan network is established by applying DEA method with its solution method is given. Finally, a case is applied to show the feasibility of the method, which can provide basis for determining the optimal scheme of urban rail transit network plan. The research shows that there are many advantages by DEA method to evaluate urban rail transit network plan, which can provide reference for decision-maker to choose schemes. IntroductionEvaluation of urban rail transit network plan is a vital link. It has very important significance for determining optimal or satisfying schemes [1]. The researches on evaluation of urban rail transit network plan in developed countries primarily concentrate on qualitative analysis, while relatively lack of quantitative analysis [2]. Representative researches in China mainly include three aspects, one is aiming at the establishment of evaluation index system [2,3], the second one is in view of the evaluation methods of urban rail transit network plan [4,5], and the third one is the integrated study [6]. Although above research have a certain role in unifying the evaluation standard, there are also some problems. For example, for index system, the scale is too large to put into practical application easily, meanwhile, some indexes are difficult to get so that the maneuverability is bad. For evaluation methods, the comprehensive benefit of each scheme can not be reflected because of the input and output being not considered synthetically. Based on above study, the evaluation index system is established. Then, the evaluation model based on DEA method is put forward, which can provide scientific basis for evaluation of urban rail transit network plan.

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