In order to automatically set the shape target curve, a model based on shape control theory is put forward. By coupling the shape forecast model and the shape discrimination model, the practical and strict shape target curve is researched. By combining strip plastic deformation model and rolls elastic deformation model, the shape forecast model is built. The shape discrimination is based on the strip element method. The main idea of the shape target curve is to minimize the shape crown in the first few passes on the condition that the strip is not unstable, in the last two passes to keep the good shape under the natural shape crown. Taking five-pass six-high rolling mill as an example, the convex strip is analyzed. The simulation and calculation results prove the validity and feasible of the shape target curve setting model. This model develops the shape target theory and lays the foundation of application of shape target curve in the rolling process of cold rolling.