In this study, we assessed the performance of 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general climate models (GCMs) for simulating the observed temperature over the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) in 1961–2004. An improved score-based method was used to rank the performance of the GCMs over the LMB. Two methods of multi-model ensemble (MME), sub-ensemble from the top 25% ranked GCMs and full ensemble from the entire GCMs, were calculated using arithmetic mean (AM) method and downscaled using the Delta method to project future temperature change during two future time periods, the near future (2006–2049) and the far future (2050–2093), under representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios) over the LMB. The improved score-based method combining multiple criteria showed a robust assessment of the GCMs performance over the LMB, which can provide good information for projecting future temperature change. The results showed a significant increase in temperature over the LMB under the two ensembles. However, there were differences in the magnitudes of the future temperature increase between the two ensemble methods, with a higher mean annual temperature increase from full ensemble and sub-ensemble at 1.26 °C (1.09 °C), 1.90 °C (1.70 °C), and 2.97 °C (2.78 °C) during 2050–2093 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to the values at 0.93 °C (0.87 °C), 0.99 °C (0.95 °C), and 1.09 °C (1.06 °C) during 2006–2049, respectively, relative to the reference time period of 1961–2004. In the future (2006–2093), the temperature is likely to increase at 0.04 °C, 0.16 °C, and 0.37 °C decade-1 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios by the sub-ensemble, while a higher temperature increase at 0.05 °C, 0.17 °C, and 0.39 °C was found by the full ensemble over the LMB, relative to the reference time period of 1961–2004. On the whole, the higher warming mainly occurred in the northern and central areas over the LMB, while the lower warming mainly occurred in the southeast and the southwest, especially under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the warming increased with increasing RCP for both ensembles. Moreover, in order to reduce the uncertainty of temperature projection in further studies in the LMB, multiple methods of GCMs ensemble should be considered and compared.

This study assessed the performances of 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing observed precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Observations from gauge-based data of the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) precipitation data were obtained from 1975 to 2004. An improved score-based method was used to rank the performance of the GCMs in reproducing the observed precipitation over the LMB. The results revealed that most GCMs effectively reproduced precipitation patterns for the mean annual cycle, but they generally overestimated the observed precipitation. The GCMs showed good ability in reproducing the time series characteristics of precipitation for the annual period compared to those for the wet and dry seasons. Meanwhile, the GCMs obviously reproduced the spatial characteristics of precipitation for the dry season better than those for annual time and the wet season. More than 50% of the GCMs failed to reproduce the positive trend of the observed precipitation for the wet season and the dry season (approximately 52.9% and 64.7%, respectively), and approximately 44.1% of the GCMs failed to reproduce positive trend for annual time over the LMB. Furthermore, it was also revealed that there existed different robust criteria for assessing the GCMs’ performances at a seasonal scale, and using multiple criteria was superior to a single criterion in assessing the GCMs’ performances. Overall, the better-performed GCMs were obtained, which can provide useful information for future precipitation projection and policy-making over the LMB.

CryoSat-2 altimetry has become a valuable tool for monitoring the water level of lakes. In this study, a concentrated probability density function (PDF) method was proposed for preprocessing CryoSat-2 Geophysical Data Record (GDR) data. CryoSat-2 altimetry water levels were preprocessed and evaluated by in situ gauge data from 12 lakes in China. Results showed that the accuracy of the raw GDR data was limited due to outliers in most of the along-track segments. The outliers were generally significantly lower than the in situ values by several meters, and some by more than 30 m. Outlier detection, therefore, improves upon the accuracy of CryoSat-2 measurements. The concentrated PDF method was able to greatly improve the accuracy of CryoSat-2 measurements. The preprocessed CryoSat-2 measurements were able to observe lake levels with a high accuracy at nine of the twelve lakes, with an absolute mean difference of 0.09 m, an absolute standard deviation difference of 0.04 m, a mean root mean square error of 0.27 m, and a mean correlation coefficient of 0.84. Overall, the accuracy of CryoSat-2-derived lake levels was validated in China. In addition, the accuracy of Database for Hydrological Time Series of Inland Waters (DAHITI) and HYDROWEB water level products was also validated by in situ gauge data.