Purpose Central lymph node metastasis (CNM) are highly prevalent but hard to detect preoperatively in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients, while the significance of prophylactic compartment central lymph node dissection (CLND) remains controversial as a treatment option. We aim to establish a nomogram assessing risks of CNM in PTC patients, and explore whether prophylactic CLND should be recommended. Materials and Methods One thousand four hundred thirty-eight patients from two clinical centers that underwent thyroidectomy with CLND for PTC within the period 2016-2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to examine risk factors associated with CNM. A nomogram for predicting CNM was established, thereafter internally and externally validated. Results Seven variables were found to be significantly associated with CNM and were used to construct the model. These were as follows: thyroid capsular invasion, multifocality, creatinine > 70 μmol/L, age < 40, tumor size > 1 cm, body mass index < 22, and carcinoembryonic antigen > 1 ng/mL. The nomogram had good discrimination with a concordance index of 0.854 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.843 to 0.867), supported by an external validation point estimate of 0.825 (95% CI, 0.793 to 0.857). A decision curve analysis was made to evaluate nomogram and ultrasonography for predicting CNM. Conclusion A validated nomogram utilizing readily available preoperative variables was developed to predict the probability of central lymph node metastases in patients presenting with PTC. This nomogram may help surgeons make appropriate surgical decisions in the management of PTC, especially in terms of whether prophylactic CLND is warranted.

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