ABSTRACT. The Lake Imandra watershed is located in one of the most developed regions in the Arctic-the Kola Peninsula of Russia. Approximately 300 000 people live on the roughly 27 000 km 2 watershed, making it one of the most densely populated areas of the Arctic. Most of the people are involved in large-scale mineral extraction and processing and the infrastructure needed to support this industry. This paper reports the results of a pilot project staged for the Lake Imandra watershed that has put human dynamics within the framework of ecosystem change to integrate available information and formulate conceptual models of likely future scenarios. The observation period is one of both rapid economic growth and human expansion, with an overall economic decline in the past decade. We are applying the Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) approach to integrate information, identify information gaps, generate likely future scenarios, and link scientific findings to the decision-making process. We found an increasingly vulnerable human population in varying states of awareness about their local environment and fully cognizant of their economic troubles, with many determined to attempt maintenance of relatively high population densities in the near future even as many residents of northern Russia migrate south. A series of workshops have involved the citizens and local decision makers in an attempt to tap their knowledge of the region and to increase their awareness about the linkages between the socioeconomic and ecological components.Key words: watershed analysis, Kola, ecological economics, adaptive management, development scenarios RÉSUMÉ. Le bassin hydrographique du lac Imandra est situé dans l'une des régions les plus développées de l'Arctique, soit la presqu'île de Kola, en Russie. Près de 300 000 personnes vivent dans la zone du bassin qui couvre environ 27 000 km 2 , ce qui en fait l'une des régions les plus peuplées de l'Arctique. La plupart des habitants travaillent dans l'extraction et le traitement miniers à grande échelle ainsi que dans l'infrastructure qui soutient cette industrie. Le présent article rapporte les résultats d'un projet pilote mis sur pied pour le bassin du lac Imandra, projet qui a placé la dynamique humaine dans le cadre du changement des écosystèmes, afin d'intégrer l'information disponible et de formuler des modèles conceptuels de scénarios probables dans l'avenir. La période d'observation en est une à la fois de croissance économique et d'expansion démographique rapides, suivie d'un déclin général au cours de la dernière décennie. On a recours à la méthode d'évaluation participative intégrée (EPI) pour intégrer l'information, y dégager des lacunes, générer des scénarios probables dans l'avenir et établir un lien entre résultats de la recherche et processus décisionnel. On a trouvé qu'il y avait une population humaine de plus en plus vulnérable qui était sensibilisée à divers degrés aux problèmes locaux de l'environnement et pleinement consciente des difficultés économiques, popula...
⎯This article has studied the specific role of the northern regions of Russia in the processes of modernizing the economy, which is defined by the fact that their industrial system is aimed at the raw production sector, as well as at a large investment potential. We have shown several lines of improving the innovative policy determined based on expert assessments.
The article analyzes methodological problems of forecasting in the socioeconomic development of a region-a constituency of the Russian Federation. It presents possibilities for implementing the scenario's approach, based on the example of Murmansk oblast. It attempts to explain in detail alternative ways of development and to consider the current trend of growing economic instability.
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