The current stage of development of the seventh pandemic of cholera in the world is characterized by a tendency to widespread, registration of outbreaks, epidemics and sporadic cases of diseases associated with drifts, including single drifts of this infection (without spreading) into Russia. The territory of Russia is one of the most water-supplied countries in the world; however, some of the rivers, such as the Volga, Ob, Amur, and Don are among the most important economic arteries, therefore just these rivers were the objects of study for this work. A comparative multivariate analysis of data from long-term monitoring studies on cholera showed that in all the studied reservoirs during the study period there was observed the isolation of cultures of Vibrio cholerae with diverse phenotypic characteristics. The data obtained allows us to tentatively assume that in Russia there are a number of areas with aquatic ecosystems, such as r. Volga, Ob, Amur, and Don, in which non-toxic cholera vibrios can survive during the summer period. In the microbiological aspect of cholera epidemiological surveillance, the accumulation of long-term data on the circulation of Vibrio cholera strains in environmental objects is important. From our point of view, the use of computer technologies (Geoinformational System) for analyzing the dynamics of the isolation of V. cholerae cultures in both spatial and temporal formats contributes to the timely determination of the direction and volume of preventive measures in each specific administrative territory of the country.

Objective of the study was to monitor the spread of cholera in the world, in the CIS countries and in Russia with an assessment of risks and emergencies that contribute to the activation of the epidemic process. Despite the downward trend in the global incidence rate of cholera during the period between 2010 and 2019, epidemics and major outbreaks occurred in 96 countries. WHO has reported 2013 imported cases of cholera to countries in Asia, the Americas, including the Caribbean, Europe, and Australia with Oceania; cholera-endemic administrative territories are identified in 24 countries. According to WHO, cholera burden reduction in Asia and Africa is associated with large-scale vaccination. During epidemiological surveillance of cholera, 705 strains of V. cholerae O1 and O139 serogroups were isolated from surface reservoirs in 26 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, including 10 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA+tcpA+, 35 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA+, 655 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA– , and five strains of V. cholerae O139 ctxA–tcpA–. Identification of strains with unique, previously unknown INDEL genotypes testifies to their imported nature. The forecast for cholera in the world for 2020, given the proven high degree of epidemic process activation at the expense of social and environmental risks caused by emergencies of different origin, the presence of endemic foci, infection import and other risk factors is unfavorable. For Russia, the forecast for cholera will be determined by the presence of external risks created by the ongoing 7-th pandemic, possible importation of infection to constituent entities of the Russian Federation that differ by the types of epidemic manifestations.

Проблемы особо опасных инфекций. 2019; 1 ОБЗОРЫ 64 в соответствии с резолюцией, принятой 26 мая 2018 г. на 71-й сессии всемирной ассамблеи здравоохранения (WHA71.4), пункт 11.2, раздел «профилактика холеры и борьба с ней», холера является одной из приоритетных задач глобальной дорожной карты до 2030 г., которая предусматривает реализацию стратегии борьбы с инфекцией на пути к достижению целей устойчивого развития к миру, свободному от угрозы холеры [1]. основу эффективных противохолерных мероприятий составляет эпидемиологический надзор с использованием диагностической подсистемы, предусматривающей эпидемиологический мониторинг холеры на глобальном и других территориальных уровнях во взаимосвязи с эпидемиологиче-ПрогноЗ По холере на 2019 г. на оСновании аналиЗа эПидемиологичеСкой обСтановки в мире, Снг и роССии в 2009-2018 гг. 1 ФКУЗ «Ростовский-на-Дону научно-исследовательский противочумный институт», Ростов-на-Дону, Российская Федерация; 2 ФКУЗ «Противочумный центр», Москва, Российская Федерация проведен анализ заболеваемости холерой в период 2009-2018 гг. выявлена тенденция роста в динамике заболеваемости в мире (относительно 2009 г.) со средним ежегодным темпом прироста -5,352 %. в 2017 г., впервые за период 7-й пандемии, вызванной V. cholerae O1 El Tor, по данным воз, количество больных превысило 1 млн человек (1227391), из них 84,1 % (1032481) пришлось на йемен, где продолжается война и одна из крупнейших в мире эпидемий. имели место трансграничные эпидемиологические осложнения в ряде стран африки. сохраняются эндемичные очаги в странах азии, африки и карибского бассейна. при эпидемиологическом надзоре в россии из поверхностных водоемов изолировано 744 штамма V. cholerae о1 биовара эль тор ctxA -tcpA -, ctxA -tcpA + и V. cholerae о139 ctxAи tcpA -, а также единичные V. cholerae о1 биовара эль тор ctxA + tcpA + . по данным INDEL-и пцр-генотипирования установлено выделение штаммов с идентичными и новыми генотипами. для прогноза на 2019 г. проведена оценка риска активизации (продолжения) эпидемического процесса при холере в мире с учетом чс различного происхождения и факторов риска. прогноз по холере на глобальном уровне и в россии на 2019 г. -неблагоприятный.Ключевые слова: холера, эпидемия, заносы, эндемичные территории, V. cholerae O1, прогноз.Abstract. Analysis of cholera incidence for the period of 2009-2018 was performed. The upward tendency in the morbidity rate dynamics around the world (compared to 2009) with an average annual growth rate of 5,352 % was revealed. For the first time during the 7th pandemic caused by V. cholerae O1 El Tor, WHO reported 1227391 cases of cholera world-wide in 2017, out of which 1032481 (84.1%) were registered in Yemen, where the war continues and one of the largest epidemics in the world. There have been cross-border epidemiological complications in several African countries. Endemic foci continue to exist and spread in Asia, Africa and the Caribbean. Under the epidemiological surveillance in Russia, 744 strains of V. cholerae El Tor -ctxA -tcpA -, ctxA -tcpA + and V. chol...

Aim. Application of the authors’ GIS «Cholera 1989-2014» for systematization of atoxigenic strains of serogroup 01 cholera vibrios (ctxAB-tcpA-, ctxAB-tcpA+), isolated from aquatic objects of the environment by pheno- and genotype. Materials and methods. A sample of 304 Vibrio cholerae 01 strains was studied. Isolation of 39 genes related to pathogenicity was carried out. Discrimination ability of a set of genes was determined by Simpson formula. Cluster analysis was carried out by UPGMA method. Results. Analysis of multi-year data on aquatic V. cholerae 01 strains in country’s subject was carried out using GIS. A possibility of systematization of phenotypes of the isolated strains by defined parameters was shown. An experimental program for detection of presence/lack of various genes and their combinations forgenotyping was developed. Conclusion. GIS was established to allow to carry out analysis of phenotypes by defined parameters, as well as implement approximate systematization of genotypes of atoxigenic strains of cholera vibrios 01 by optimally sufficient detection of 14 genes.

Aim. Analysis of the phenotypic characteristics and identification of peculiarities of the genotypic organization in non-toxigenic strains of cholera vibrios having different origin, isolated in Russia. Materials and methods. A sample of 548 non-toxigenic strains obtained using the author’s updated GIS “Cholera 1989–2014” was used. PCR genotyping was carried out in accordance with the patented “Method for the identification of non-toxigenic strains of cholera vibrio O1 serogroup using PCR to isolate genetic determinants.” Cluster analysis was performed applying the UPGMA method. The dendrogram was constructed using MEGA 5 software package.Results and discussion. Representative cultural-morphological, serological and biochemical properties of V. cholerae strains have been specified. The variability of the studied strains on the basis of phagolizability has been revealed. Unique phage-types not previously encountered in Russia have been identified. The population of non-toxigenic strains of cholera vibrio O139 serogroup is genetically homogeneous in contrast to V. cholerae O1 El Tor isolates and has identical PCR genotypes. The universality of the PCR genotyping by 14 target genes has been shown to differentiate the studied strains of V. cholerae O1 and O139, as well as to identify disparities among O139 strains isolated in different geographical regions of the country.