The objective was to develop a methodology for predicting death in patients with burn injury using regression analysis methods.Methods and Materials. The analysis of the results of treatment of 330 burned with a shock injury, hospitalized in the Department of Anesthesiology and Resuscitation of the Department of Thermal Lesions of Saint-Petersburg I. I. Dzhanelidze research institute of emergency medicine in the period 2013–2019.Results. In the course of the study, 52 indicators were identified that characterized the condition of the victim with burn injury in the dynamics of treatment measures. To build a predictive model, only statistically significant parameters (p<0.05) were used, which were used to build a model of logistic regression. The final algorithm included 18 predictors. The model allows predicting a positive outcome of treatment and the likelihood of a fatal outcome with an accuracy of 93 and 87 % respectively.Conclusion. The use of a multivariate mathematical model made it possible to develop a method for predicting a fatal outcome, taking into account the peculiarities of the pathogenesis of burn disease and the principles of therapeutic measures in the first three days after injury. The use of linear regression analysis using new indicators of thermal injury in a retrospective cohort of 330 patients allowed us to achieve a high predictive value.

BACKGROUND: A rare severe, characterized by high mortality in some localizations (up to 70%) necrotizing periorbital fasciitis has not been described previously in the national literature. AIM: to show a multidisciplinary approach to the treatment and rehabilitation of patients with periorbital necrotizing fasciitis on the example of the clinical case. CLINICAL CASE: Patient with the acute necrotizing fasciitis of both eyelids, with the dissemination to the superficial face and neck fascies, the sepsis development is given. Monitoring of vital functions, homeostasis indicators, repeated inoculations, computed tomography, regular examination by an ophthalmologist included the control of visual functions, anterior and posterior segments, closure of the eye fissure. Conservative and surgical treatment applied by a multidisciplinary team is presented, which allowed to save the patients life, overpass the purulent-necrotic, and then the rough scar process and to achieve satisfactory anatomical and functional results. CONCLUSION: Timely multidisciplinary treatment of periorbital necrotizing fasciitis is necessary for the life preservation, prevention of severe complications from the eye. With the threat of developing lagophthalmos, it is necessary to perform permanent blepharoraphy for 36 months after the first surgery and further surgical and pharmacological correction of scarring processes.

The proportion of pregnant women hospitalized for burns is small and amounts to 0.5% of the number of patients in burn centers, while most often, up to 50% of cases, patients receive superficial burns with an area of 10-30% of the body surface. Few literature data indicate that burns on an area of up to 10% of the body surface do not have a significant effect on the course of pregnancy.