This paper presents the analysis of the dataset that is the consumption of electrical power in one household within practically four years in order to find out some patterns, cyclical or seasonal features or other significant information that allows us to do forecasting of the future demand with the certain degree of accuracy.

SUMMARYThe dynamic of the natural pine trees renewal process in Taiga zone based on mathematical modelling is examined. Dynamic modelling is used for prediction of natural renewal success depending on seeds' yield and bumper crop years' recurrence. In current study mean bumper crop recurrence is assumed to be once per 5 years, this means that a bumper crop year may occur in 4 years as well as in 6 years. The analysis of the state of natural renewal depending on maternal stand among main forest types is made. The bearing age of 30 years is assumed, with the maximum seed productivity age of 110-130 years, depending on the forest type. The data on trunk quantity distribution depending on age was obtained as a result of a simple sum. The algorithm of the sum has been implemented in Interpol procedure contained in the initial text file gav4.cpp. The initial distribution of trunk quantity depending on age was taken from the growth progress tables. The change of trunk quantity by decades was determined using extrapolation of known values according to power function N= 424316,4хА-1,3533 . The value of approximation certainty factor equals R 2 = 0.9857. The age of stands changes from 20 to 190 years. The amount of bearing trees aged 31-40 years old was assumed as 5-10%, whereas at the maximum bearing age (110-130 years old) the share of bearing trees totals 70-90% depending on the forest type. The presented model is discrete, dynamic, stochastic and descriptive. Stochasticity of the process is caused by the uncertainty in the quantity of bearing trees depending on age, uncertainty in the quantity of seeds from a single tree, uncertainty in the quantity of sprouts and in the occurrence of normal and bumper crops. To account for randomness a function ravnom (a,b) has been introduced, which generates uniformly distributed random numbers from a to b. Implementation of this function is possible using C++ language. Due to the stochasticity of the natural renewal process more implementations of the program are needed for a more reliable prediction.

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The problems of joint cultivation of pine and fir, as well as the choice of the optimal composition of the target woods are examined. Collection of material for analysis of the commodity structure and forest indices of plantings was conducted in the summer of 2013 in Lisinsky teaching experimental forestry of Leningrad region in maturing stands of mixed conifer forest of sorrel type passed by thinning with intensity of 10 to 30 % in homogeneous soil conditions. Temporary sample plots measuring 0.25 hectares were laid by conventional forestry techniques considering OСT 56-69-83. Accounting of trees and calculation of the commodity structure of forest stands was conducted by conventional taxational methods.

The long-term impact of earlier conducted silvicultural treatments on the parameters of the growing stock and the timber density of pine in mixed conifer stands in blueberry-cranberry for-est type is observed. At the experimental plots due to chemical treatment at the stage of young stand and subsequent thinning forests of different composition and growing stock were formed to the present time. On the control plot without any measures conifers are not currently exist. The relationship between indicators of macro structure of pine xylem with wood density is given.