10 Years After: Long-term Adoption of Electricity in Rural Rwanda

Abstract

Extending the power grid into hitherto unconnected areas is high on the policy agenda in Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, connection rates and electricity consumption remain low in grid connected areas, at least in the short and medium run. This paper provides a long-term follow-up on an evaluation of a large-scale grid extension program in rural Rwanda. We study the adoption of grid electricity over time using a panel of 41 communities that were electrified up to ten years ago. We find that connection rates for households living near the grid increased from 62% in 2013 to 82% in 2022. At the wider community level, connection rates are much lower, at 51%. Furthermore, electricity consumption levels and appliance usage are low and did not grow over time. We corroborate these findings with administrative consumption data from the utility customer data base. Our findings suggest that investments into grid-based rural electrification cannot be justified by economic development impacts and cost-benefit considerations.