12 September 2012: A supercell outbreak in NE Italy?

Manzato, Agostino; Davolio, Silvio; Miglietta, Mario Marcello; Pucillo, Arturo; Setvák, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.07.019

Cited by 37 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…d of Manzato et al . () in the same area, but the temporal and spatial scales are relatively small compared to bow echo studies, as documented in the literature (e.g. Weisman, ).…”

Section: Meteorological Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a simple analytical model to severe winds produced by a bow echo like storm in northeast Italy

Pucillo

Miglietta²,

Lombardo

et al. 2019

Meteorological Applications

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A strong mesoscale convective system affected northeastern Italy on August 8, 2008. Notable damage and two casualties resulted, mainly due to the strong wind gusts. The event is analysed using observations, including surface data from a meso‐network of meteorological stations, radar reflectivity and velocity data from a C‐band Doppler radar, polar satellite images, lightning measurements from a lightning detection network and the ambient thermodynamic conditions derived from local radiosoundings. The role of the cold front is investigated; in particular, the associated strong wind descending from the Alps, which interacted with the preexisting convection in the plain, is analysed to understand the way it affected the storm development. A simple density current model is applied to describe the flow characteristics and to identify the mechanisms that could support the development of such a high wind speed. Lastly, observed wind speeds are compared with the theoretical estimates from the proposed model. The results show that different factors contribute to the very strong wind gusts registered by surface stations. The main contributor to the windstorm is a density current (a) driven by the cold front, (b) maintained by the interaction between the cold air impinging on the Friuli Venezia Giulia plain from the north and the strong regional density gradient and (c) eventually enhanced by the storm cold pool. This study highlights the complex evolution of severe storms in a region on the lee side of the Alpine chain, and emphasizes the role of the orography in the enhancement of storm.

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“…d of Manzato et al . () in the same area, but the temporal and spatial scales are relatively small compared to bow echo studies, as documented in the literature (e.g. Weisman, ).…”

Section: Meteorological Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a simple analytical model to severe winds produced by a bow echo like storm in northeast Italy

Pucillo

Miglietta²,

Lombardo

et al. 2019

Meteorological Applications

Self Cite

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“…However, observations of supercells in other geographical areas are not uncommon. Regions around the Alpine ridge are known to be preferred locations for convection development (Morgan, ; Cacciamani et al , ; van Delden, ; Morel and Senesi, , ; Kaltenbock and Steinheimer, )¨, and in these areas convection may often organize into supercells (Houze et al , ; Chancibault et al , ; Kaltenbock, ; Giaiotti and Stel, ; Peyraud, ; Manzato et al , )¨.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A long‐lived supercell over mountainous terrain

Scheffknecht

Serafin

Grubı̆sı́c

2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The life cycle of a convective storm forming over highly complex topography on the northern side of the Alps is studied. Moist convection began ahead of a cold front in the late morning of 2 August 2007 in eastern Switzerland. It developed into a supercell storm that moved along the Alpine main crest for more than 8 h, passed over several 2000 m high ridges and ultimately dissipated over eastern Austria. This study analyzes the impact of topography on the pre‐storm environment and on the storm development using several simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a minimum horizontal grid spacing of 833 m. A hindcast simulation of the event features a convective system evolving in good agreement with observations. Variations in the simulated storm intensity appear to be related to the topography below the storm. Two idealized simulations help understand how the Alpine topography affected storm initiation and development. North of the Alps, relatively strong shear between southwesterly synoptic flow aloft and thermally induced plain‐to‐mountain flow near the ground created favourable conditions for supercell development. Small‐scale terrain features supported the upward transport of moisture via slope circulations, locally reducing CIN and increasing CAPE, and ultimately enhancing the storm longevity.

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“…September 201212, 13, 14, 24, 26, 30 October 201212, 13, 15, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31 November 2012 not increase considerably) the false alarms. It is noted that Fierro et al (2013) found little sensitivity of the results by varying A by 5 %.…”

Section: Month Daysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of RAMS precipitation forecast at the short-range through lightning data assimilation

Federico

Petracca

Panegrossi

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study shows the application of a total lightning data assimilation technique to the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) forecast. The method, which can be used at high horizontal resolution, helps to initiate convection whenever flashes are observed by adding water vapour to the model grid column. The water vapour is added as a function of the flash rate, local temperature, and graupel mixing ratio. The methodology is set up to improve the shortterm (3 h) precipitation forecast and can be used in real-time forecasting applications. However, results are also presented for the daily precipitation for comparison with other studies.The methodology is applied to 20 cases that occurred in fall 2012, which were characterized by widespread convection and lightning activity. For these cases a detailed dataset of hourly precipitation containing thousands of rain gauges over Italy, which is the target area of this study, is available through the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) initiative. This dataset gives the unique opportunity to verify the precipitation forecast at the short range (3 h) and over a wide area (Italy).Results for the 27 October case study show how the methodology works and its positive impact on the 3 h precipitation forecast. In particular, the model represents better convection over the sea using the lightning data assimilation and, when convection is advected over the land, the precipitation forecast improves over the land. It is also shown that the precise location of convection by lightning data assimilation improves the precipitation forecast at fine scales (meso-β).The application of the methodology to 20 cases gives a statistically robust evaluation of the impact of the total lightning data assimilation on the model performance. Results show an improvement of all statistical scores, with the exception of the bias. The probability of detection (POD) increases by 3-5 % for the 3 h forecast and by more than 5 % for daily precipitation, depending on the precipitation threshold considered.Score differences between simulations with or without data assimilation are significant at 95 % level for most scores and thresholds considered, showing the positive and statistically robust impact of the lightning data assimilation on the precipitation forecast.

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12 September 2012: A supercell outbreak in NE Italy?

Cited by 37 publications

References 27 publications

Application of a simple analytical model to severe winds produced by a bow echo like storm in northeast Italy

Application of a simple analytical model to severe winds produced by a bow echo like storm in northeast Italy

A long‐lived supercell over mountainous terrain

Improvement of RAMS precipitation forecast at the short-range through lightning data assimilation

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