793: A new prediction model for birth within 48 hours in women with preterm labour symptoms

Stock, Sarah; Horne, Margaret; Bruijn, Merel; Morris, Rachel; Dorling, Jon; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L.; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Baaren, Gert-Jan van; Schuit, Ewoud; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben Willem; Riley, Richard D; Norman, Jane E.; Norrie, John

doi:10.1016/j.ajog.2019.11.809

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“…On the other hand, a model incorporating four predictors (cervical length at admission, GA, amniotic fluid, glucose and IL-6) has an AUC of 0.8658 and similarly, the combination of biophysical, biochemical, immunological, microbiological, fetal cell, exosomal, or cell-free RNA at different GAs, integrated as part of a multivariable predictor model may be necessary to advance our attempts to predict spontaneous preterm labor (sPTL) and preterm birth. In the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 48 hours, a prognostic model including quantitative fetal fibronectin (qfFN) and clinical risk factors showed excellent results 59 60. Both models have higher discriminatory performance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing and validating a risk prediction model for preterm birth at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, North-West Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

et al. 2022

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ObjectiveTo develop and validate a risk prediction model for the prediction of preterm birth using maternal characteristics.DesignThis was a retrospective follow-up study. Data were coded and entered into EpiData, V.3.02, and were analysed using R statistical programming language V.4.0.4 for further processing and analysis. Bivariable logistic regression was used to identify the relationship between each predictor and preterm birth. Variables with p≤0.25 from the bivariable analysis were entered into a backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression model, and significant variables (p<0.05) were retained in the multivariable model. Model accuracy and goodness of fit were assessed by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (discrimination) and calibration plot (calibration), respectively.Setting and participantsThis retrospective study was conducted among 1260 pregnant women who did prenatal care and finally delivered at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialised Hospital, Bahir Dar city, north-west Ethiopia, from 30 January 2019 to 30 January 2021.ResultsResidence, gravidity, haemoglobin <11 mg/dL, early rupture of membranes, antepartum haemorrhage and pregnancy-induced hypertension remained in the final multivariable prediction model. The area under the curve of the model was 0.816 (95% CI 0.779 to 0.856).ConclusionThis study showed the possibility of predicting preterm birth using maternal characteristics during pregnancy. Thus, use of this model could help identify pregnant women at a higher risk of having a preterm birth to be linked to a centre.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%