A 2-D numerical model of snow/ice energy balance and ice flow for paleoclimatic interpretation of glacial geomorphic features

Plummer, Mitchell A.; Phillips, Fred M.

doi:10.1016/s0277-3791(03)00081-7

Cited by 126 publications

(200 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Furthermore, our physically based model is very similar (e.g. types of input data, required parameterisation) to that of Plummer and Phillips (2003), which has been applied to sites in the Southern Alps to derive quantitative estimates of LGM climate (e.g. Rowan et al, 2013;Putnam et al, 2013a).…”

Section: Glacier Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ice flow is described using a vertically integrated, twodimensional (2-D) model based on the shallow ice approximation (SIA) (Plummer and Phillips, 2003;Kessler et al, 2006). A full description is given in Doughty et al (2013).…”

Section: Ice Flow Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, the SIA is commonly applied in mountain glacier environments for palaeoclimatic reconstructions, where mass balance imparts the greatest uncertainty in simulated glacier extents (e.g. Plummer and Phillips, 2003;Kessler et al, 2006;Doughty et al, 2013). …”

Section: Ice Flow Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We follow the experimental design of previous similar studies (e.g. Plummer and Phillips, 2003;Doughty et al, 2013) in holding model parameters constant for all simulations (Table 2), while iteratively varying temperature and/or precipitation to achieve a fit with the geological evidence. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to this parameterisation by re-running the experiments with systematic variations of key parameters (Table 2).…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Last Glacial Maximum in the central North Island, New Zealand: palaeoclimate inferences from glacier modelling

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions provide data for evaluating the mechanisms of past, natural climate variability. Geometries of former mountain glaciers, constrained by moraine mapping, afford the opportunity to reconstruct palaeoclimate, due to the close relationship between ice extent and local climate. In this study, we present results from a series of experiments using a 2-D coupled energy balance-ice flow model that investigate the palaeoclimate significance of Last Glacial Maximum moraines within nine catchments in the central North Island, New Zealand. We find that the former ice limits can be simulated when present-day temperatures are reduced by between 4 and 7 • C, if precipitation remains unchanged from present. The spread in the results between the nine catchments is likely to represent the combination of chronological and model uncertainties. The majority of catchments targeted require temperature decreases of 5.1 to 6.3 • C to simulate the former glaciers, which represents our best estimate of the temperature anomaly in the central North Island, New Zealand, during the Last Glacial Maximum. A decrease in precipitation of up to 25 % from present, as suggested by proxy evidence and climate models, increases the magnitude of the required temperature changes by up to 0.8 • C. Glacier model experiments using reconstructed topographies that exclude the volume of post-glacial (< 15 ka) volcanism generally increased the magnitude of cooling required to simulate the former ice limits by up to 0.5 • C. Our palaeotemperature estimates expand the spatial coverage of proxy-based quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions in New Zealand. Our results are also consistent with independent, proximal temperature reconstructions from fossil groundwater and pollen assemblages, as well as similar glacier modelling reconstructions from the central Southern Alps, which suggest air temperatures were ca. 6 • C lower than present across New Zealand during the Last Glacial Maximum.

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Section: Glacier Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ice Flow Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ice Flow Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Last Glacial Maximum in the central North Island, New Zealand: palaeoclimate inferences from glacier modelling

et al. 2016

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“…Numerical modelling of former ice sheets can be an effective method of inferring palaeoclimate, particularly when constrained by empirical evidence (Plummer & Phillips, 2003;Siegert & Dowdeswell, 2004;Napieralski et al, 2007). Ice sheet simulations thus serve to further understanding of glacial climatic conditions, whilst also providing an independent method by which to appraise glacier reconstructions based on geological or geomorphological field evidence (e.g.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution numerical simulation of Younger Dryas glaciation in Scotland

Golledge

Hubbard

Sugden

2008

Quaternary Science Reviews

116

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We use a 500 m resolution three-dimensional thermomechanical ice -sheet model forced by a scaled GRIP temperature pattern to retrodict the extent of glaciers during the Younger Dryas episode in Scotland. Using empirical data from sources spanning half a century we systematically perturb temperature depression, precipitation distribution, and the amount of basal sliding to identify the parameter space that most closely reproduces the glacier margins identified from field investigations. Arithmetic comparison of predicted ice cover with empirical glacier extent enables mismatch to be quantified and an 'optimum fit' timeslice to be identified. This 'best-fit' scenario occurs with a maximum mean annual temperature depression from present of 10 C and steep eastward and northward gradients imposed on a modern precipitation distribution, coupled with restricted basal sliding. Even small deviations around these values produce considerably less well-fitting glacier configurations, suggesting that only a narrow range of optimal parameterisation exists. Mismatch between modelled and empirically reconstructed glacier extents occurs as a consequence of local conditions not accommodated by the model, such as wind-blown snow accumulation and lake (loch) bathymetry, and where geological evidence is equivocal. At the domain scale, however, our simulation suggests that inception of Scottish glaciers occurs rapidly, and leads to a coherent ice cap within 400 years of initial climatic cooling. According to our model, the ice cap begins to decay relatively early in the stadial, probably as a result of increasing aridity leading to net thinning and recession of many of its margins, with final and catastrophic collapse of the ice cap occurring largely within a century.

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Late Quaternary glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation distribution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Rowan

Brocklehurst

Schultz

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.

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Glaciers respond to climate variations and leave geomorphic evidence that represents an important terrestrial paleoclimate record. However, the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions from glacial geology is limited by the challenge of representing mountain meteorology in numerical models. Precipitation is usually treated in a simple manner and yet represents difficult-to-characterize variables such as amount, distribution, and phase. Furthermore, precipitation distributions during a glacial probably differed from present-day interglacial patterns. We applied two models to investigate glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation in the eastern Southern Alps of New Zealand. A 2-D model was used to quantify variations in the length of the reconstructed glaciers resulting from plausible precipitation distributions compared to variations in length resulting from change in mean annual air temperature and precipitation amount. A 1-D model was used to quantify variations in length resulting from interannual climate variability. Assuming that present-day interglacial values represent precipitation distributions during the last glacial, a range of plausible present-day precipitation distributions resulted in uncertainty in the Last Glacial Maximum length of the Pukaki Glacier of 17.1 km (24%) and the Rakaia Glacier of 9.3 km (25%), corresponding to a 0.5°C difference in temperature. Smaller changes in glacier length resulted from a 50% decrease in precipitation amount from present-day values (À14% and À18%) and from a 50% increase in precipitation amount (5% and 9%). Our results demonstrate that precipitation distribution can produce considerable variation in simulated glacier extents and that reconstructions of paleoglaciers should include this uncertainty.

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A 2-D numerical model of snow/ice energy balance and ice flow for paleoclimatic interpretation of glacial geomorphic features

Cited by 126 publications

References 29 publications

The Last Glacial Maximum in the central North Island, New Zealand: palaeoclimate inferences from glacier modelling

The Last Glacial Maximum in the central North Island, New Zealand: palaeoclimate inferences from glacier modelling

High-resolution numerical simulation of Younger Dryas glaciation in Scotland

Late Quaternary glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation distribution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

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