A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Rivera, Oriana Ovalle; Kirschke, Dieter

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x

Cited by 431 publications

(415 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…These estimates are larger than those reported in studies using coarser resolution approaches, which yield <30% reductions for Latin America (1) using 2.5 arc-minute resolution. The higher resolution of our model in mountainous regions, and differences between climate model generations [i.e., Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)/CMIP3 vs. RCP/CMIP5] used here account for the different results (1,2). Most of the future suitable range for coffee will occur in areas currently suitable for coffee.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…coffee | adaptation strategies | smallholder farms | suitability modeling | pollination C limate change impact assessments suggest a significant reduction, up to 50% (1,2), in the global area suitable for coffee farming by midcentury. Such losses will affect the livelihoods of 100 million people in the coffee industry (2).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Such losses will affect the livelihoods of 100 million people in the coffee industry (2). The direct effect of climate change on the climatic suitability of coffee farms may be mitigated or accentuated by further effect on pollinators (3).…”

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Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Imbach

Fung

Lee

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffeesuitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.coffee | adaptation strategies | smallholder farms | suitability modeling | pollination C limate change impact assessments suggest a significant reduction, up to 50% (1, 2), in the global area suitable for coffee farming by midcentury. Such losses will affect the livelihoods of 100 million people in the coffee industry (2). The direct effect of climate change on the climatic suitability of coffee farms may be mitigated or accentuated by further effect on pollinators (3). These coupled effects have not been examined in coffee climate studies.Pollinator activity at flowers has a positive effect on coffee yield (4), fruit set (5-7), and berry weight (4, 7). Significant fruit set increases occur on coffee farms as the number of bee species increases from 3 to 20 (5). Native bee species are often more effective coffee pollinators than nonnative honey bees (8), and maximizing their diversity can help provide continuous pollination over time (9). The number of flower visits and pollen deposition on flowers are higher for coffee plants close to the forest (5, 9-11) because food and nesting sites maintain pollinator populations year-round (9). Native bee foraging activity declines within hundreds of meters (up to 1,600 m) from forests where bees nest (9), making forest proximity an important determinant of pollination service. In tropical forest regions where coffee is grown, the abundant native bees are ...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Imbach

Fung

Lee

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Similar areas suitable for the commodities were compared to the actual harvested areas, taken from FAO (2013) statistics for cacao, rubber and oil palm, and from Bunn et al (2015) for coffee. The results were that conditions similar to where arabica is now grown feature in 3.56 million km 2 or about 57 times the current harvest area of 0.0625 million km 2 (Figure 9).…”

Section: Tree Cropsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical forest-transition landscapes: a portfolio for studying people, tree crops and agro-ecological change in context

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Noordwijk

Zulkarnain

et al. 2017

International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Servic

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Nudging the development trajectory of tropical landscapes towards sustainability requires a global commitment and policies that take diverse contexts and forest transitions into account. Out-scaling and upscaling landscape-level actions to achieve sustainable development goals globally need to be based on understanding of extrapolation domains and interconnectivity of products and services. We evaluated three portfolios of tropical landscape observatories and quantified extrapolation domains across ecological zones, stages of forest transition, human development index (HDI), population density and potential prominence of four dominant tropical tree crops (arabica coffee, cacao, rubber and oil palm). The ASB Partnership for Tropical Forest Margins portfolio was focussed on active humid forest margins and the Poverty and Environment Network on early stages of forest transition. The portfolio of sentinel landscapes of the Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) research programme provides a 5% sample of pantropical area, 8% of people, 9% of tree cover and 10-12% of potential tree crop presence, with quantified biases across zones, transition stages and HDI. In the 'water tower' configuration, relatively high population density coincides with biodiversity, coffee expansion and contested ecosystem services. The extrapolation domain of the FTA portfolio includes trade-off (tree loss) and synergy (restoration) phases of tropical forest transition. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…Smallholder coffee farmers are similarly vulnerable to climate change. Coffee is sensitive to temperature variability and temperature increase (Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015), which can cause significant reductions in yield, aggravated by pest and disease outbreaks that can increase under changing climatic conditions (Baca et al 2014;Bunn et al 2015;Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015;Avelino et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

et al. 2016

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The impacts of climate change exacerbate the myriad challenges faced by smallholder farmers in the Tropics. In many of these same regions, there is a lack of current, consistent, and spatially-explicit data, which severely limits the ability to locate smallholder communities, map their adaptive capacity, and target adaptation measures to these communities. To explore the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in three data-poor countries in Central America, we leveraged expert input through in-depth mapping interviews to locate agricultural landscapes, identify smallholder farming systems within them, and characterize different components of farmer adaptive capacity. We also used this input to generate an index of adaptive capacity that allows for comparison across countries and farming systems. Here, we present an overview of the expert method used, followed by an examination of our results, including the intercountry variation in expert knowledge and the characterization of adaptive capacity for both subsistence Climatic Change (2017) The Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202, USA and smallholder coffee farmers. While this approach does not replace the need to collect regular and consistent data on farming systems (e.g. agricultural census), our study demonstrates a rapid assessment approach for using expert input to fill key data gaps, enable trans-boundary comparisons, and to facilitate the identification of the most vulnerable smallholder communities for adaptation planning in data-poor environments that are typical of tropical regions. One potential benefit from incorporating this approach is that it facilitates the systematic consideration of fieldbased and regional experience into assessments of adaptive capacity, contributing to the relevance and utility of adaptation plans.

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A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee

Cited by 431 publications

References 30 publications

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Tropical forest-transition landscapes: a portfolio for studying people, tree crops and agro-ecological change in context

Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale

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