A Blackout Model Based on Optimal Risk Index and High-Risk Line Identification

Abstract

This paper summarizes the defects of both OPA model and its improved models and then proposes a new model in order to simulate real power system roundly. There is an inner loop based on DC power flow optimization to minimize the change in generation or load shed and an outer loop based on the risk theory. In the outer loop, whether to improve the line capacity and how to improve are determined by risk index of line improvement (RILI) and line improvement degree function, respectively. A new prevention strategy against cascading failure is proposed by identifying the high-risk lines and determining optimal RILI which minimize line improvement cost and load loss. In the end, simulation based on 39-bus New England System reveals that new model is closer to real power system than the original one by comparing outage probability and load loss between the two models, and risk-based assessment interval and line improvement delay play important roles in prevention against power system outages, and improvement based on risk assessment can reduce outage probability to varying degrees, which illustrates the practical significance of optimal RILI.