A Capture–Recapture Model to Estimate the Size of Criminal Populations and the Risks of Detection in a Marijuana Cultivation Industry

Bouchard, Martin

doi:10.1007/s10940-007-9027-1

Cited by 101 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 30 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Despite ongoing research on the risk of apprehension (q) in various crime types (e.g. Bouchard, 2007;Collins & Wilson, 1990), it has been a neglected area in sexual offending research (Bouchard & Lussier, 2011), and consequently, the ability to escape detection and avoid sanction has been overlooked. Generally speaking, research in economic and market offences has shown that offenders differ in terms of their ability to avoid detection (e.g., Bouchard & Nguyen, 2010;Bouchard & Ouellet, 2011;Kazemian & LeBlanc, 2007;McCarthy & Hagan, 2001).…”

Section: Cost Avoidance and Sexual Offendingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

Lussier

Bouchard

Beauregard

2011

Journal of Criminal Justice

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose: The current study examines significant variations in criminal achievement across sex offenders. To examine the "successful" sex offender, the study proposes a concept of achievement in sexual offending defined as the ability to maximize the payoffs of a crime opportunity while minimizing the costs. Methods: The study is based on a sample of convicted adult male sex offenders using retrospective longitudinal data. Results: The study findings show a wide variation in criminal achievement, a variation that is not correlated with the severity of sentences meted out or the actuarial risk scores obtained by these offenders. Those offenders who specialize in sex crimes were shown to be the most productive and least detected offenders. Two types of successful offenders emerge, the first relying on his conventional background in targeting a victim that can be repeatedly abused for a long period without detection. The second is a younger offender that is successful in the sense of being able to complete aggressions on multiple victims. Conclusions: Results suggest that the successful sex offender is not "detected" once he enters the criminal justice system, nor is he handled in a way that may deter him from sexually reoffending in the future.REFERENCE: Lussier, P., Bouchard, M. & Beauregard, E. (2011). Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the "successful" sex offender. Journal of Criminal Justice, 39,[433][434][435][436][437][438][439][440][441][442][443][444] Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to P. Lussier, Pavillon Charles-De Koninck, 1030, ave. des Sciences-Humaines, Quebec, Quebec G1V 0A6, Canada. Tel.: +1 418 656 2131x5978. E-mail address: patrick.lussier@svs.ulaval.ca. PATTERNS OF CRIMINAL ACHIEVEMENT IN SEXUAL OFFENDING 2Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the "successful" sex offender After more than 50 years of research on sexual recidivism, researchers have been unable to provide a formal evidence-based explanation of the criminal activity of sexual offenders. The risk factor approach taken and pursued over the years have restrained possibilities of understanding the criminal career dynamics of individuals committing sex offences and recent empirical studies have emphasized the need to correct this (e.g., Amirault & Lussier, 2011; Lussier & Davies, in press;Lussier, Tzoumakis, Cale, & Amirault, 2010). In that regard, this study is a departure from past research on this issue. The aim is not to identify a predictive model of sexual recidivism but rather to understand what is being predicted and who is being identified in the process. Sexual recidivism or in more technical terms, sexual rearrest and sexual reconviction, have become the gold standard measures to determine risk. While researchers have acknowledged that "official recidivism" carries an important limitation (i.e., it measures official reoffending or the likelihood or being caught, again), it has served to establish the risk of recidivism, the prevalen...

show abstract

Section: Cost Avoidance and Sexual Offendingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

Lussier

Bouchard

Beauregard

2011

Journal of Criminal Justice

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The risk of detection is reduced and it allows for greater proximity to urban centers. We agree that the risks of detection and arrest are two different notions (Bouchard, 2007). However, both are likely to have an influence on offenders' choice of location for crops, depending on the selected method of cultivation.…”

Section: Objective and Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 64%

Cannabis cultivation in Quebec: Between space–time hotspots and coldspots

Chadillon-Farinacci

Apparicio

Morselli

2015

International Journal of Drug Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BACKGROUNDCannabis cultivation has become increasingly localized, whether soil-based or hydroponic growing methods are used. Characteristics of a given location, such as its climate and the equipment it requires may influence general accessibility or attract different types of offenders based on potential profits. The location of crops, especially hydroponic crops, suggests a certain proximity to the consumer market via semi-urban and urban environments, while making it possible to avoid detection. This article examines the cannabis market through its cultivation.

show abstract

“…The current lack of validated information about drug markets may be attributed to the paucity of innovative methodological tools to assess them (Bouchard, 2007). To overcome the distinct barriers with analyzing synthetic drug markets requires that we use innovative methods that extend beyond traditional techniques.…”

Section: Innovative Assessment Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursors and Prices

Ouellet

Morselli

2013

Journal of Drug Issues

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Research gathered on synthetic drug markets trails behind studies on other illegal drug markets. Synthetic drug's relatively recent classification as an illicit substance, coupled with its distinct characteristics that insulate it from detection has hindered the development of reliable assessments of the markets structural features. The purpose of this study is to provide reliable insight into the inner dynamics of Quebec's synthetic drug industry, focusing on its organizational features. Using information derived from 365 synthetic drugs seized by law enforcement over a one year period, this study will merge two techniques, drug composition and economic analyses, under a common framework to derive reliable and comprehensive assessments of the structure of Quebec's synthetic drug market. Drug composition analysis examines the drug's chemical and physical profile to make inferences about the market structure while the economic analysis examines price determinants for the same market, providing further insight into its dynamics and distinctive features. Findings from the drug composition analysis indicate that the synthetic drug market in Quebec is likely to be composed of a high number of small structures, indicating a competitive market. The economic analysis provided complementary information, finding that both differential production costs and trafficker-consumer relations may influence price variations, depending on the region. This study concludes by emphasizing that drug composition analysis should be diligently pursued by both researchers and enforcement organizations alike to effectively target and enhance our understanding of the intricate processes that underlie the synthetic drug market. iv

show abstract

A Capture–Recapture Model to Estimate the Size of Criminal Populations and the Risks of Detection in a Marijuana Cultivation Industry

Cited by 101 publications

References 30 publications

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

Cannabis cultivation in Quebec: Between space–time hotspots and coldspots

Precursors and Prices

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About