A Case Study on the Use of Expert Selected Set Method in the Reliability Analysis of an Urban Deep Excavation Project

Abstract

The necessity of constructing structures beneath ground level, increases the need of performing deep excavations in urban areas. It is essential to have a reliable estimation about the performance of deep excavation systems. This approach is not accessible via common deterministic analysis methods, since the uncertainty of soil parameters are not considered in these methods. Thus, various probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability analysis methods are proposed to overcome this shortcoming. Due to the complicated mathematical procedure and lack of thorough database available for soil properties in real projects, which are both required to perform most of the reliability analysis methods, these methods are not welcomed by the engineers in practical projects. Since, it is common to apply deterministic analysis methods, the disadvantage of ignoring the effects of uncertainty on system response still exists in operation. According to the results of researches done in the field of reliability analysis, there are simple proposed methods which can be utilized in practical projects; however, they are not known to the engineers. In the present study a recently developed and simple reliability analysis method called Expert selected set method is applied for the analysis of an urban deep excavation project in Iran. For verification purposes, the results are compared with field measurement values and the reliability analysis results which were obtained using a well-known method called Point estimate method. The comparisons approve the feasibility of investigated method to predict the system performance and providing a reliable estimate of the system response, during the design stage.