A Chronological Overview of Scientific Research on Ship Grounding Frequency Estimation Models

Abstract

In the global maritime industry, ship grounding represents about one-third of commercial groundings. Grounding is a type of accident where the hull of a ship strikes the seabed, causing damage to the hull. This type of accident can lead to damage to the hull and water penetration, but also to the pollution of the marine environment by the spillage of ship fuel or some liquid cargo carried by the ship. This paper presents a chronological overview of the contribution of ship grounding frequency, where one of the first ideas of grounding probability was presented by Macduff (1974) and Fuji (1974) in their models. Their ideas, such as grounding candidates and causing probability, laid the foundation for the development of future models. After their models, years later, other models continued to be developed; e.g., analytically (Macduff, Fujii, Amrowitcz, etc.) and statistically (Pedersen, Simonsen, etc.). To find the probability of grounding in an area of interest or in a scenario, it is necessary to have the number of grounding candidates and the causing probability. There are different internal and external factors that affect both probabilities, and in this paper, we analyze how various authors approach their grounding models and have tried to show the actual event as faithfully as possible and thus contribute to greater safety in maritime transport. The number of grounding frequency models significantly complicates their selection in practice; accordingly, the review of models in this paper should facilitate this, but also it should facilitate future research on this topic.

The State of the Hydrographic Survey and Assessment of the Potentially Risky Region for Navigation Safety

“…Statistical analysis regarding the main causes for major types of collision, contact, stranding, fire, explosion, and failure of machinery equipment is presented in [38]. A chronological overview of the contribution of ship stranding frequency is presented in [39]. The stranding, causes, and risk assessments are investigated and discussed in [40,41].…”

A Predictive Analytics Method for the Avoidance of Ship Grounding in Real Operational Conditions

“…To date, various review papers discussed the potential use of science-based risk analysis models for the estimation of the probability of ship grounding risk. (Mazaheri et al, 2014;Galić et al, 2022;Deeb et al, 2017). These grounding models can be categorized into three classes, namely (i) risk analysis, (ii) consequence evaluation, and (ii) avoidance algorithms.…”