A Clinical Prognostic Scoring System for Neurocysticercosis

Abstract

Objectives In patients with neurocysticercosis (NCC), an accurate risk prediction would allow a better therapeutic approach; however, there are currently no tools that can enhance the accuracy of risk prediction. We designed a prognostic scoring system to be used by neurologists and other physicians managing patients with NCC. Materials and Methods Using data from clinical records of patients from a third-level national reference center for neurological diseases, we assessed demographic, clinical, and tomographic variables among 293 patients diagnosed with NCC. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to develop a clinical prognostic scoring instrument. Patients with NCC were assessed for neurological impairment at 3 months after diagnosis. Statistical Analysis Score accuracy was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The primary outcome was the presence of neurological impairment, resulting in disability according to self-report or caregiver reports; this outcome was assessed during follow-up visits at 3 ± 1 months after discharge. Results The most common symptoms at presentation were headache (67%) and seizure (63%). A six-item (total score from –4 to + 2) prognostic instrument was constructed on the basis of the presence of seizures/headache at presentation, a leukocyte count above 12x 109/dL, the presence of six to ten parasites, subarachnoid localization, and the use of anthelmintic drugs. Among 113 patients with negative scores, 79.6% developed neurological deficits. Among patients with scores of 1 to 2, 64.6% recovered completely, with an overall accuracy of prediction of 74.7% and area under the ROC curve = 0.722 (95% CI, 0.664–0.780, p < 0.0001). Conclusions The clinical prognostic scoring system for NCC described in this study is a new instrument for use in daily clinical practice. It is simple to administer, and it has a prognostic accuracy of 75%. Its use has the potential to improve the quality of care by guiding appropriate decision-making and early management of patients with NCC.