A Coastal Ocean Forecast System for U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine

Wilkin, John; Levin, Julia; López, Alexander; Hunter, Elias; Zavala‐Garay, Javier; Arango, Hernan G.

doi:10.17125/gov2018.ch21

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…This finding suggests that long-term satellite altimeter observations (1992-present) offer valuable dynamic input for use in regional circulation models. Efforts in assimilative modeling using altimeter SSHA data on the GoM-MAB shelf are in progress [33,34]. Here we seek to apply these decade-long in situ ocean current datasets, recorded in both the MAB and GoM, to examine the accuracy of satellite-derived GlobCurrent data.…”

Section: Study Regions and General Oceanographymentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the Accuracy of GlobCurrent Upper Ocean Velocity Data Products on the Northwestern Atlantic Shelf

et al. 2018

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This study provides a regional coastal ocean assessment of global upper ocean current data developed by the GlobCurrent (GC) project. These gridded data synthesize multiple satellite altimeter and wind model inputs to estimate both Geostrophic and Ekman-layer velocities. While the GC product was mostly devised and intended for open ocean studies, the present objective is to assess whether its data quality nearer the coast is suitable for other applications. The key ground truth sources are long-term mean and time series observations on the Northwestern Atlantic (NWA) shelf derived from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) and high frequency (HF) radar networks in both the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and the Gulf of Maine (GoM). Results indicate that mean geostrophic currents across the MAB and the offshore GoM agree to roughly 10% in speed and 10 degree in direction with the in situ depth-averaged currents, with correlation levels of 0.5–0.8 at seasonal and longer time scales. Interior GoM comparisons at 5 coastal buoys show much less agreement. One likely source of GoM error is shown to be the GC mean dynamic topography near the coast. Comparison to near-surface MAB HF radar current measurements on the MAB shelf shows significant GC data improvement when including the surface Ekman term. Overall, the study results imply that application of GlobCurrent data may prove useful in coastal seas with broad continental shelves such as the MAB or Scotian shelf, but that large inaccuracies inside the GoM diminish its utility there.

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Section: Study Regions and General Oceanographymentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the Accuracy of GlobCurrent Upper Ocean Velocity Data Products on the Northwestern Atlantic Shelf

et al. 2018

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“…Coastal marine forecast systems are in use or development in a number of regions worldwide (e.g., Lellouche et al., 2018; Mel & Lionello, 2014; Moore et al., 2011; Pinardi & Coppini, 2010; Raboudi et al., 2019; Wilkin et al., 2018). As each region is unique, the length of forecast window and relative levels of forced to internal variability differ among these systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consistent Predictability of the Ocean State Ocean Model Using Information Theory and Flushing Timescales

et al. 2021

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The Ocean State Ocean Model (OSOM) is an application of the Regional Ocean Modeling System spanning the Rhode Island waterways, including Narragansett Bay, Mt. Hope Bay, larger rivers, and the Block Island Shelf circulation from Long Island to Nantucket. This study discusses the physical aspects of the estuary (Narragansett and Mount Hope Bays and larger rivers) to evaluate physical circulation predictability. This estimate is intended to help decide if a forecast and prediction system is warranted, to prepare for coupling with biogeochemistry and fisheries models with widely disparate timescales, and to find the spin‐up time needed to establish the climatological circulation of the region. Perturbed initial condition ensemble simulations are combined with metrics from information theory to quantify the predictability of the OSOM forecast system–i.e., how long anomalies from different initial conditions persist. The predictability timescale in this model agrees with readily estimable timescales such as the freshwater flushing timescale evaluated using the total exchange flow (TEF) framework, indicating that the estuarine dynamics rather than chaotic transport is the dominant model behavior limiting predictions. The predictability of the OSOM is ∼7–40 days, varying with parameters, region, and season.

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“…There are aspects of the model solution that would likely improve with formal data assimilation, but that is not part of this body of work. The configuration uses surface, river and open boundary forcing data streams that are suited to real-time operation, and such a system with 4-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation [Levin et al, 2019;Wilkin et al, 2018] has been prototyped for MARACOOS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Doppio – A ROMS-based Circulation Model for the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine: Configuration and comparison to integrated coastal observing network observations

López¹,

Wilkin²,

Levin³

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. We describe Doppio, a ROMS-based model of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine regions of the northwest North Atlantic developed in anticipation of future applications to biogeochemical cycling, ecosystems, estuarine downscaling, and near-real-time forecasting. This free-running regional model is introduced with circulation simulations covering 2007–2017. The ROMS configuration choices for the model are detailed, and the forcing and boundary data choices described and explained. A comprehensive observational data set is compiled for skill assessment from satellites and in situ observations from Regional Associations of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing Systems, including moorings, autonomous gliders, profiling floats, surface current measuring coastal radar, and fishing fleet sensors. Doppio's performance is evaluated with respect to these observations by representation of sub-regional temperature and salinity error statistics, as well as velocity and sea level coherence spectra. Model circulation for the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine is visualized alongside the mean dynamic topography to convey the model's capabilities.

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A Coastal Ocean Forecast System for U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine

Cited by 19 publications

References 46 publications

Examining the Accuracy of GlobCurrent Upper Ocean Velocity Data Products on the Northwestern Atlantic Shelf

Examining the Accuracy of GlobCurrent Upper Ocean Velocity Data Products on the Northwestern Atlantic Shelf

Consistent Predictability of the Ocean State Ocean Model Using Information Theory and Flushing Timescales

Doppio – A ROMS-based Circulation Model for the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine: Configuration and comparison to integrated coastal observing network observations

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