A common ground? Constructing and exploring scenarios for infrastructure network-of-networks

Neef, R.M.; Verweij, Stefan; Busscher, Tim; Arts, Jos

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2020.102649

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 82 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The Missed-Boat and Safety Revolution scenarios show close freight demand because of their similar GDP and world trade changes. This is also validated by the cluster analysis of the Delphi study for the scenario development ( 22 ). Different energy prices and GS have minor effects on differentiating between the aforementioned two scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

“…Four future scenarios from the work of Neef et al ( 22 ) (referred to as the core scenarios) were adapted to provide quantitative inputs for the considered determinants of passenger and freight transport demand. Socio-economic variables, world trade, and fuel price are the main determinants of transport demand defined by different scenarios.…”

Section: Model Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The advancements of the Reference scenario are used for both the Missed-Boat and Safety Revolution scenario, because of the moderate enhancements with regard to clean technologies. According to the cluster analysis of Neef et al ( 22 ), Missed-Boat and Safety Revolution are likely to have similar technological advancement, which is mainly because of slow economic development. The emission factors include energy production and tailpipe emissions, which are estimated based on the plausible technological progression and diffusion and the governing policies within each scenario.…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the change in emission and energy consumption factors over time is addressed in line with assumed future technological developments. Here, four future scenarios are adopted from the work of Neef et al ( 22 ). The behavioral, socio-economic, policy-related, and technological dimensions of these scenarios are reflected in the model.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Scenario-Based Strategic Modeling of Road Transport Demand and Performance

Asgarpour

Hartmann

Gkiotsalitis

et al. 2023

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Road infrastructure plays an important role in the economic and social development of societies. Thus, it requires effective and timely responses to cope with and embrace uncertain future changes. This study proposes an integrated, scenario-based strategic model which estimates transport demand, network performance, emission, and energy consumption. The model accounts for future economic, behavioral, policy, and technological developments by including four future scenarios and traces the possible changes in transport infrastructure performance. It primarily aims at supporting infrastructure decisions by quantifying a set of network and environmental performance indicators along their spatial–temporal dimension. Moreover, the effects of transport demand and energy transition policies on road performance are considered within each scenario. This model is applied in a case study region covering the main industrial and urban regions of the Netherlands. The discussed results provide insights into the possible infrastructure investments within each scenario and elaborate on the possible effects of policies.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Section: Model Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Scenario-Based Strategic Modeling of Road Transport Demand and Performance

Asgarpour

Hartmann

Gkiotsalitis

et al. 2023

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Dutch infrastructure networks require considerable renewal, due to aging assets, network capacity constraints, and stricter qualitative standards including sustainability and climate adaptation requirements. While many infrastructure networks (e.g., road, rail, energy) are increasingly interconnected – that is, multiple networks affect each other's functioning and/or are located in the same area – a collective renewal that employs these interconnections are often not pursued due to the systems' institutional fragmentation (Bornemann, 2017; Heeres et al, 2016; Hiteva & Watson, 2019; Neef et al, 2020; Shrestha et al, 2014; WRR, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping institutional change: Analysing strategies for institutional design in collective infrastructure renewal

Neef

Busscher

Verweij

et al. 2022

European Policy Analysis

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Actors' toolset to affect institutional change by doing institutional design is limited because criteria for effective institutional design are often too general and abstract. This paper aims to identify institutional design strategies and explore how they influence institutional change. The theoretical framework builds on Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework to map institutional change, and it identifies six institutional design strategies: framing, puzzling, powering, network composition, network outcomes, and network interaction. A comparative case study on Dutch infrastructure renewal opportunitiesone case's institutional design interventions attained collective renewal, the other did notmaps institutional change in decision-making rounds through institutional directions. Key findings include that institutional change of position, boundary, choice, and information rules first is conducive to collective action. Moreover, mimicry of especially choice rules is pivotal. Furthermore, institutional design strategies have a configurational nature: microlevel strategies have mesolevel consequences, and some configurations

show abstract