A comparative analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions-energy profile in Kuwait: status quo versus 2030

Abstract

Kuwait is among the leading countries globally in terms of its per capita consumption of electricity and water based on the energy outlook report released in 2019. In Kuwait, the CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions rates have increased from the energy sector due to the burning of significant amounts of fossil fuels to meet the demands of electricity generation and water supply. Under these circumstances, the demanding analysis methodology to forecasting CO2 emissions from the energy sector, the per capita energy consumption and CO2 emissions were 8.9 toe per capita and 21.1 tonnes of CO2-eq emissions per capita, respectively. This paper aims to quantify a comparative analysis model and estimate an numeric magnitude for current and forecasting 2030 CO2 production totals from Kuwait's energy sector and its impact on average atmospheric temperature and energy production. The aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) was used as an indicator to evaluate the current energy situation and predict a model for Kuwait's CO2 emissions situation and identify how the energy demand and supply might evolve by 2030. The CO2 emissions for 2030 and the electricity consumption trend were assumed to be the 'business-as-usual' model using 2nd set of Fuel Analysis USEPA, with five fuel blend scenarios used as the energy sector's predicted fuel blends. The results found that the total CO2 emissions from the energy sector and the ACI of Kuwait in 2016 were 48.6 MtCO2 and 0.69 kgCO2/kWhr, respectively. The 2030 estimations indicated that using an 80% natural gas – 20% gas oil fuel blend in energy production resulted in CO2 emissions of approximately 66 MtCO2, with an ACI of 0.45 kgCO2/kW-hr. The CO2 offset from upcoming renewable energy projects is projected to be approximately 13%.