A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices

Yim, Seongjin; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Wu, Zhiwei

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1956-9

Cited by 101 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…When the precipitation migrates to the SH during NH winter, the corresponding monsoon flows reverse direction accordingly. For detailed monsoon rainfall-circulation relationships for the regional monsoons, readers are referred to Yim et al (2013). Given these advances, any monsoon definition based solely on winds is thus grossly inadequate for characterizing the socio-economic and scientific importance of the monsoon.…”

Section: Concept Of Monsoon In Retrospectmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global monsoon across timescales: coherent variability of regional monsoons

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Monsoon has earned increasing attention from the climate community since the last century, yet only recently have regional monsoons been recognized as a global system. It remains a debated issue, however, as to what extent and at which timescales the global monsoon can be viewed as a major mode of climate variability. For this purpose, a PAGES (Past Global Changes) working group (WG) was set up to investigate the concept of the global monsoon and its future research directions. The WG's synthesis is presented here. On the basis of observation and proxy data, the WG found that the regional monsoons can vary coherently, although not perfectly, at various timescales, varying between interannual, interdecadal, centennial, millennial, orbital and tectonic timescales, conforming to the global monsoon concept across timescales. Within the global monsoon system, each subsystem has its own features, depending on its geographic and topographic conditions. Discrimination between global and regional components in the monsoon system is a key to revealing the driving factors in monsoon variations; hence, the global monsoon concept helps to enhance our understanding and to improve future projections of the regional monsoons. This paper starts with a historical review of the global monsoon concept in both modern and paleoclimatology, and an assessment of monsoon proxies used in regional and global scales. The main body of the paper is devoted to a summary of observation data at various timescales, providing evidence of the coherent global monsoon system. The paper concludes with a projection of future monsoon shifts in a warming world. The synthesis will be followed by a companion paper addressing driving mechanisms and outstanding issues in global monsoon studies.

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Section: Concept Of Monsoon In Retrospectmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global monsoon across timescales: coherent variability of regional monsoons

et al. 2014

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“…Typhoon Usagi intensified over the same region, and within 24 hours, it also rapidly intensified into a Category 5 system. The definitions of circulation indices for each monsoon region are shown in Table 4.1 (Yim et al 2013). 4.27a).…”

Section: (Ii) Landfalling and Other Significant Tcsmentioning

confidence: 99%

State of the Climate in 2013

Blunden¹,

Arndt²,

Willett³

et al. 2014

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

108

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“…Significant correlations between monsoonal rainfall and Niño3.4 suggest that ENSO causes global tropical monsoon rainfall variability and may in turn give rise to skillful predictions at subseasonal time-scales but these relationships have been nonstationary for most monsoon regions over the past 50 years (Yim et al, 2014). Earlier studies did not suggest strong relationships between the NAM and ENSO (Namias, 1991;Adams and Comrie, 1997), however the continental-scale anomalous anticyclone prevailing in summer over North America during La Niña and contrasting with weaker impacts during El Niño (Wang et al, 2007) might be of relevance to the NAM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subseasonal Predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Ensemble Forecasts

Vigaud

Robertson

Tippett

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Subseasonal forecast skill over the broadly defined North American (NAM), West African (WAM) and Asian (AM) summer monsoon regions is investigated using three Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) at sub-monthly lead times. Extended Logistic Regression (ELR) is used to produce probabilistic forecasts of weekly and week 3-4 averages of precipitation with starts in May-Aug, over the 1999-2010 period. The ELR tercile category probabilities for each model gridpoint are then averaged together with equal weight. The resulting Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasts exhibit good reliability, but have generally low sharpness for forecasts beyond 1 week; Multi-model ensembling largely removes negative values of the Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) seen in individual forecasts, and broadly improves the skill obtained in any of the three individual models except for the AM. The MME week 3-4 forecasts have generally higher RPSS and comparable reliability over all monsoon regions, compared to week 3 or week 4 forecast separately. Skill is higher during La Niña compared to El Niño and ENSO-neutral conditions over the 1999-2010 period, especially for the NAM. Regionally averaged RPSS is significantly correlated with the Maden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for the AM and WAM. Our results indicate potential for skillful predictions at subseasonal time-scales over the three summer monsoon regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

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A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices

Cited by 101 publications

References 35 publications

The global monsoon across timescales: coherent variability of regional monsoons

The global monsoon across timescales: coherent variability of regional monsoons

State of the Climate in 2013

Subseasonal Predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Ensemble Forecasts

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