A comparison of statistical models for the analysis of complex forensic DNA profiles

Kelly, Hannah; Bright, Jo‐Anne; Buckleton, John; Curran, James M.

doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2013.07.003

Cited by 57 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Binary methods are being slowly replaced by more advanced computer‐based interpretation methods, such as semicontinuous models (also described as discrete or drop models ) and continuous models , which can both take into account stochastic events to varying degrees. Semicontinuous models incorporate the probability of drop‐out and, optionally, drop‐in to a profile.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the performance of different models for the interpretation of low level mixed DNA profiles

Bille¹,

Weitz²,

Coble

et al. 2014

Electrophoresis

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DNA analyses from forensic casework samples commonly result in complex DNA profiles. Often, these profiles consist of multiple contributors and display multiple stochastic events such as peak height imbalance, allelic or locus drop-out, allelic drop-in, and excessive or indistinguishable stutter. This increased complexity has established a need for more sophisticated methods of DNA mixture interpretation. This study compares the effectiveness of statistical models in the interpretation of artificially created low template two person mixed DNA profiles at varying proportions and template quantities. Two binary models (combined probability of inclusion and random match probability), a semicontinuous (Lab retriever), and continuous model (STRmix™) were compared. Generally, as the sophistication of the models increases, the power of discrimination increases. Differences in discrimination often correlate to each model's ability to use observed data effectively. Binary models require static thresholds resulting in unused data and outliers that may lead to difficult or incorrect interpretation. Semicontinuous and continuous models eliminate the stochastic threshold, however Lab Retriever does not account for stochastic events beyond drop-out and drop-in leading to possible less effective use of the data. STRmix™ incorporates all stochastic events listed above into the calculation making the most effective use of the observed data.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the performance of different models for the interpretation of low level mixed DNA profiles

Bille¹,

Weitz²,

Coble

et al. 2014

Electrophoresis

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show abstract

“…From our results (that used a discrete/semi-continuous LR model), we conclude that when the relevance of the evidence is weak, it may be best to decide not to continue to computing an LR, even though it could result in a large LR in favour of the prosecution hypothesis. The specifics of the LR-based statistical model (such as the choice between a continuous and semi-continuous model that make yes or no use of peak height information) that is applied, will affect the actual LR that is obtained [23,[35][36][37][38][39]. The suitability of using peak height information in profiles derived with enhanced interrogation techniques has, however, not been shown.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of samples comprising minute amounts of DNA

et al. 2015

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“…genotyping using what has been termed 'semicontinuous' (where only allele information is used) or 'fully continuous' (where alleles and peak height information are used) [57][58][59][60][61][62][63].…”

Section: (C) Stronger Conclusion With Challenging Samplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of forensic DNA analysis

Butler

2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

178

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One contribution of 15 to a discussion meeting issue 'The paradigm shift for UK forensic science'. The author's thoughts and opinions on where the field of forensic DNA testing is headed for the next decade are provided in the context of where the field has come over the past 30 years. Similar to the Olympic motto of 'faster, higher, stronger', forensic DNA protocols can be expected to become more rapid and sensitive and provide stronger investigative potential. New short tandem repeat (STR) loci have expanded the core set of genetic markers used for human identification in Europe and the USA. Rapid DNA testing is on the verge of enabling new applications. Next-generation sequencing has the potential to provide greater depth of coverage for information on STR alleles. Familial DNA searching has expanded capabilities of DNA databases in parts of the world where it is allowed. Challenges and opportunities that will impact the future of forensic DNA are explored including the need for education and training to improve interpretation of complex DNA profiles.

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A comparison of statistical models for the analysis of complex forensic DNA profiles

Cited by 57 publications

References 25 publications

Comparison of the performance of different models for the interpretation of low level mixed DNA profiles

Comparison of the performance of different models for the interpretation of low level mixed DNA profiles

Evaluation of samples comprising minute amounts of DNA

The future of forensic DNA analysis

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