A Competing Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival Among Patients with Prostate Cancer after Radical Prostatectomy

Abstract

Background: We aimed to develop a detailed individual survival prognostication tool based on competing risk analyses to predict the risk of 5-year cancer-specific death after radical prostatectomy for patients with prostate cancer (PCa).Methods: We obtained the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2016). The main variables obtained included age at diagnosis, marital status, race, pathological extension, regional lymphonode status, prostate specific antigen level, Gleason Score biopsy. In order to reveal the independent prognostic factors. The cumulative incidence function was used as the univariable competing risk analyses and The Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard approach was used as the multivariable competing risk analyses. With these factors, a nomogram and risk stratification based on the nomogram was established. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used for validation.Results: A total of 95,812 patients were included and divided into training cohort (n = 67,072) and validation cohort (n = 28,740). Seven independent prognostic factors including age, race, marital status, pathological extension, regional lymphonode status, PSA level, and GS biopsy were used to construct the nomogram. In the training cohort, the C-index was 0.828 (%95CI, 0.812-0.844), and the C-index was 0.838 (%95CI, 0.813-0.863) in the validation cohort. The results of the cumulative incidence function showed that the discrimination of risk stratification based on nomogram is better than that of the risk stratification system based on D'Amico risk stratification.Conclusions: We successfully developed the first competing risk nomogram to predict the risk of cancer-specific death after surgery for patients with PCa. It has the potential to help clinicians improve postoperative management of patients