A Continuous Time-and-State Epidemic Model Fitted to Ordinal Categorical Data Observed on a Lattice at Discrete Times

Crete, Rémi; Pumo, Besnik; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Didelot, Frédérique; Caffier, Valérie

doi:10.1007/s13253-013-0138-x

Cited by 5 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…A number of mechanistic models have been developed and tested for fungal pathogens and other pests (e.g. Blackleg 36 , citrus tristeza virus 37 , anthracnose 38 , yellow rust of wheat 39 , forest gap generated by bark beetles species 40 and apple scab 41 ). Historically, models have focused on evolution of resistance to chemical pesticide applications, rather than evolution of virulence 42 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rotating and stacking genes can improve crop resistance durability while potentially selecting highly virulent pathogen strains

Crete

Pires

Barbetti

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Rotating crop cultivars with different resistance genes could slow the evolution of virulent strains of fungal pathogens, but could also produce highly virulent pathogen strains. We present a new model that links polycyclic pathogen epidemiology and population genetics in order to predict how different strategies of rotating cultivars with different resistances will affect the evolution of pathogen virulence and the breakdown of crop resistance. We modelled a situation where there were four different resistance genes that can be deployed within each crop cultivar, and four virulence genes that may be present within the pathogen. We simulated four different rotational management strategies: (i) no rotation; (ii) a different gene every year; (iii) a different gene every 5 years; and (iv) a different combination of two stacked genes each year. Results indicate that rotating cultivars can lead to longer periods of disease suppression but also to the selection of highly virulent strains. The efficacy and relative advantage of different resistant cultivar rotation strategies depended on the fitness penalties, initial virulence allele frequencies, and ability of non-virulent pathogen genotypes to grow and reproduce on resistant cultivars. By capturing the essential processes involved, our model provides a useful new tool for investigating the evolutionary dynamics of pathogen virulence and crop resistance breakdown.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rotating and stacking genes can improve crop resistance durability while potentially selecting highly virulent pathogen strains

Crete

Pires

Barbetti

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…It was chosen because of its low susceptibility to scab on leaves and fruits, evaluated without fungicide application (Brun et al, 2008). There is no report of resistance erosion for Reine des Reinettes, whereas it is known that the breakdown of Ariane resistance results in a high scab susceptibility (Crété et al, 2013). Each year, we evaluated the efficiency of the scab control at two key points of the epidemiological cycle of the disease: at the end of the primary infection on the leaves and at harvest on the fruits.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable management of scab control through the integration of apple resistant cultivars in a low-fungicide input system

Didelot

Caffier

Orain³

et al. 2016

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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“…Note e.g. that in the Poisson process functional mark case one would be able to generate multivariate functional marks given by multivariate Poisson processes, a construction similar to the one in Crété et al (2013).…”

Section: C25 Wiener Measure Generated Densitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Functional marked point processes -- A natural structure to unify spatio-temporal frameworks and to analyse dependent functional data

Ghorbani

Cronie

Mateu

et al. 2019

Preprint

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This paper treats functional marked point processes (FMPPs), which are defined as marked point processes where the marks are random elements in some (Polish) function space. Such marks may represent e.g. spatial paths or functions of time. To be able to consider e.g. multivariate FMPPs, we also attach an additional, Euclidean, mark to each point. We indicate how FMPPs quite naturally connect the point process framework with both the functional data analysis framework and the geostatistical framework. We further show that various existing models fit well into the FMPP framework. In addition, we introduce a new family of summary statistics, weighted marked reduced moment measures, together with their non-parametric estimators, in order to study features of the functional marks. We further show how they generalise other summary statistics and we finally apply these tools to analyse population structures, such as demographic evolution and sex ratio over time, in Spanish provinces.

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A Continuous Time-and-State Epidemic Model Fitted to Ordinal Categorical Data Observed on a Lattice at Discrete Times

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Rotating and stacking genes can improve crop resistance durability while potentially selecting highly virulent pathogen strains

Rotating and stacking genes can improve crop resistance durability while potentially selecting highly virulent pathogen strains

Sustainable management of scab control through the integration of apple resistant cultivars in a low-fungicide input system

Functional marked point processes -- A natural structure to unify spatio-temporal frameworks and to analyse dependent functional data

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