A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts

Kao, Shih‐Chieh; Govindaraju, Rao S.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.029

Cited by 522 publications

(268 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Then, the gamma probability distribution function is applied to fit the average monthly precipitation series. Ultimately, the SPI value is calculated through transforming the cumulative probabilities of the Gamma distribution to the standard normal distribution (McKee et al, 1993;Kao and Govindaraju, 2010). The detailed SPI calculation formulas can be referenced to previous studies (McKee et al, 1993;Logan et al, 2010;Huang et al, 2014b).…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and the influencing factors: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China

Huang

Chang

et al. 2015

Agricultural Water Management

130

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The heuristic segmentation method Drought propagation The Budyko hypothesis The Wei River Basin a b s t r a c t It is of importance to investigate the response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and its influencing factors, which could help better understand drought evolution mechanisms and facilitate agricultural drought monitoring and predictions. As a case study in the Wei River Basin (WRB), China, the heuristic segmentation method was first applied to identify change points of long-term hydrological and metrological conditions for the period of 1960-2007. Then the cross wavelet analysis was utilized to reveal the detailed links between agricultural drought (based on Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)) and meteorological drought (based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)) at the seasonal time scale. The controlling factors governing the agricultural response were then explored through quantitatively examining the corresponding large-scale atmospheric conditions and local-scale land surface characteristics. Results indicate that: (1) the variations of the lag time of agricultural drought in response to meteorological drought is large at the seasonal scale, characterized by fast response in summer and relatively slow response in autumn, and the contrasting response in the time lag is mainly due to the buffering effects of soils; (2) the variations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) was found to have large effects on the lag time, with both positive and negative effects; (3) a negative correlation between the lag time and the parameter w in the Fu' equation within the Budyko framework was found, implying the potential effects of vegetation cover on the drought propagation from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in the WRB.

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Section: Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and the influencing factors: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China

Huang

Chang

et al. 2015

Agricultural Water Management

130

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“…Therefore, information derived from various drought-related sources is very necessary for successful and reasonable drought assessment. Some researchers adopted copula function to construct a new integrated drought index (Kao and Govindaraju, 2010;Hao and AghaKouchak, 2013). For instance, Kao and Govindaraju (2010) used copula function to capture the joint behavior of precipitation and streamflow to assess droughts; Hao and AghaKouchak (2013) developed a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) combining SPI and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) to monitor drought based on copula function.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated index for drought assessment based on variable fuzzy set theory: A case study in the Yellow River basin, China

Huang

Chang

Leng

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

138

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Keywords:Integrated drought index Variable fuzzy set theory Entropy weight method Qualitative change point The Yellow River basin s u m m a r y It is of great importance to construct an integrated drought indicator, which is of great importance to drought risk assessment and decision-making. Given the fuzzy nature of drought, the variable fuzzy set theory was applied to develop an Integrated Drought Index (IDI) combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural factors across the Yellow River basin in North China. The runoff and soil moisture were derived by driving the calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with observed atmospheric forcing. Furthermore, the law of mutual change of quality and quantity was adopted to identify qualitative change points of annual IDI series in the Yellow River basin. The results indicate that: (1) the Integrated Drought Index (IDI) has a better performance compared with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized streamflow Index (SSFI), and it is more sensitive and effective to capture drought onset and persistence, largely owing to its combination with the information of different drought-related variables; (2) spatially, the middle reaches has a higher drought risk than the rest portions of the Yellow River basin; seasonally, drought risk in spring and winter is larger than other seasons; overall, the IDI of the basin is dominated by an insignificantly downward trend; (3) some qualitative change points of drought were identified in the Yellow River basin, and those are primarily induced by ENSO events and the construction of dams and reservoirs. This study proposed an alternative drought indicator coupled with multivariate drought-related variables by objectively determining their weights based on the entropy weight method, which has a great value in characterizing drought.

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“…Only very limited applications can be found in the literature with multivariate analysis of rainfall (Gräler 2014;Gyasi-Agyei and Melching 2012;Zhang and Singh 2007;Kao and Govindaraju 2008;Salvadori and De Michele 2006;Grimaldi and Serinaldi 2006), floods (Zhang and Singh 2014;Xiong et al 2014;Chen et al 2012;Serinaldi and Grimaldi 2007;Genest et al 2007;Salvadori and De Michele 2010) and droughts (Kao and Govindaraju 2010;Song and Singh 2010;Wong et al 2010).…”

Section: Copulasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic simulation of precipitation-consistent daily reference evapotranspiration using vine copulas

Pham

Vernieuwe

Baets

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Evapotranspiration is an important process in the water cycle that represents a considerable amount of moisture lost to the atmosphere through evaporation from the soil and wet surfaces, and transpiration from plants. Therefore, several water management methods, such as irrigation scheduling and hydrological impact analysis, rely on an accurate estimation of evapotranspiration rates. Often, daily reference evapotranspiration is modelled based on the Penman, Priestley-Taylor or Hargraeves equation. However, each of these models requires extensive input data, such as daily mean temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation. Yet, in design studies, such data may be unavailable and therefore, another approach may be needed that is based on stochastically generated time series. More specifically, when rainfall-runoff models are used, these evapotranspiration data need to be consistent with the accompanying (stochastically generated) precipitation time series data. In this paper, such an approach is presented in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, precipitation and temperature is described by three-and four-dimensional vine copulas.Based on a case study of 72 years of evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation data, observed in Uccle, Belgium, it is shown that canonical vine copulas (C-vines) perform very well in preserving the dependences between variables.

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A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts

Cited by 522 publications

References 49 publications

The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and the influencing factors: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China

The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and the influencing factors: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China

Integrated index for drought assessment based on variable fuzzy set theory: A case study in the Yellow River basin, China

Stochastic simulation of precipitation-consistent daily reference evapotranspiration using vine copulas

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