A cost-effective approach to handle measurement and verification uncertainties of energy savings

Abstract

Measurement and verification (M&V) function has been adopted in many energy efficiency (EE) programmes to quantify energy savings, identify new energy efficiency opportunities, improve EE programme design, and reduce EE programme performance risks. Budgetary constraints in EE programmes necessitate careful planning to minimise M&V cost whilst maintaining M&V accuracy. For this purpose, this study presents an M&V cost minimisation model to handle M&V sampling and modelling uncertainties costeffectively. In the proposed model, the objective function is the total M&V project cost, which consists of M&V sampling cost, modelling cost, and overhead cost. The required M&V accuracy in terms of the 90/10 criterion is formulated as the constraints of this optimisation problem. Optimal solutions to the proposed model specify the required baseline model accuracy and sample sizes to achieve the desired M&V accuracy. The proposed model is applied to design an optimal M&V sampling and modelling plan for a traffic light retrofit project. Results show that the optimal M&V plan reduces the sampling cost by 42% and the total M&V cost by 11% against the solutions obtained by partial optimisation.

Risk Mitigation in Energy Efficiency Retrofit Projects Using Automated Performance Control

“…lower risk of dispute with the client, lower risk of needing to deliver shortfall compensation, etc.). On the other hand, a higher guarantee [11,32,39,40]. makes the ESCO more competitive and more likely to win the project bidding process.…”

Structuring Uncertainty Management for Energy Savings Calculations

“…Measurement uncertainty can only be considered negligible when using high-calibre metering devices. Power meters commonly have measurement errors of less than one per cent [10]. Equation (1) below, found in the ASHRAE guideline [24], represents an equation that can be applied to multiple meters to determine the relative measurement error percentage.…”

Efficient metering and surveying sampling designs in longitudinal Measurement and Verification for lighting retrofit

“…The most directly relevant work was done by Ye and his co-authors [18][19][20]37]. Improvements on Ye et al's method were suggested by Carstens et al [16,38], and an extension considering modelling uncertainty was done by Olinga [39]. Ye et al's method reduces sample sizes in two ways.…”