A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the effect of various vaccination scenarios was qualitatively evaluated by numerical simulation. The estimated basic reproduction number was 1.831 ± 0.078, and the greatest contributor was the 5–10 year-old group (0.747 ± 0.042, 40.80%). Sensitivity analysis indicated that there was a strong negative correlation between the second dose vaccination coverage rate and basic reproduction number. In addition, we qualitatively found that the incidence would significantly decrease as the second dose vaccine coverage expands. The results suggest that two-dose varicella vaccination should be mandatory, and the optimal age of second dose vaccination is the 5–10 year-old group. Optimal vaccination time, wide vaccine coverage along with other measures, could enhance the effectiveness of prevention and control of varicella in China.

Effectiveness of a 2-dose varicella vaccination program in Changzhou, China, during the transitional period (2017-2022): a registry-based case-cohort study

“…Beijing [12], Shanghai [13], Hangzhou [14], Ningbo [15], Qingdao [16], and certain cities in Jiangsu Province [17][18][19][20] have increasingly adopted 2-dose VarV policy support into local vaccination programs. However, The vaccination coverage of these programs varied widely by region [21][22][23][24][25]. The overall vaccination coverage in China is not high now [9,10,24].…”

Response Strategies for Emerging Infectious Diseases: More Efforts Are Needed

“…Three articles refer to compartment models. Xiang et al explored the optimal varicella vaccination schedule in Jiangsu Province, China [ 8 ]. This study shows that it is necessary to promote two-dose varicella vaccination, and the optimal age of patients upon receiving the second dose vaccination is 5–10 years old.…”