A Dynamic Risk Appraisal Model and Its Application in VTS Based on a Cellular Automata Simulation Prediction

Abstract

The successful implementation of Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) relies heavily on human decisions. With the increasing development of maritime traffic, there is an urgent need to provide a sound support for dynamic risk appraisals and decision support. This research introduces a cellular automata (CA) simulation-based modelling approach the objective of which is to analyze and evaluate real-time maritime traffic risks in port environments. The first component is the design of a CA model to monitor ships’ behavior and maritime fairway traffic. The second component is the refinement of the modelling approach by combining a cloud model with expert knowledge. The third component establishes a risk assessment model based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. A typical scenario was experimentally implemented to validate the model’s efficiency and operationality.

Navigating the Future: Developing Smart Fairways for Enhanced Maritime Safety and Efficiency

“…The study also revealed several domains that require additional research and development. This means that the Smart Fairways would combine together the elements studied in the literature ranging from mobile communication technology and satellites [32,33], AtoNs [12], improved VTS [37] to just-in-time arrivals [62], remote pilotage [27] and environmental protection [38]. These findings not only underscore the complexities involved in modernizing maritime infrastructure but also highlight the dynamic nature of technological advancements in this sector.…”

“…Also, advanced digital sea charts [35] and digital twins of fairways are in development [36]. Traditional VTS is being augmented with dynamic risk assessments and decision-making systems [37]. Initial trials of remote pilotage have begun, allowing pilots to offer navigation guidance without physically boarding the ships-for example, [27] discusses the potential of remote pilotage aided with emerging technologies as an alternative to pilotage exemptions granted to experienced captains.…”