A farmer-based analysis of climate change adaptation options of agriculture in the Bărăgan Plain, Romania

Abstract

The paper has in view the assessment of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the main agricultural region of Romania (Bărăgan Plain), by understanding the contextual socio-economic factors of agriculture in the area as a key step towards climate adaptation, but also through identifying the user needs, awareness and requirements in terms of climate information. A special attention was given to the analysis of the changes in the socio-economic and political context of Romania since 1989, the post-communist period, marked by fundamental transformations in agriculture, with collective and state property being replaced by private property. The poor development of the productive services in agriculture resulted in the degradation of land's productive potential and the intensification the adverse effects of extreme climatic phenomena, proving a strong dependency of crop yields and productivity on climate. The mid-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) climate variability and change of some key variables affecting crop development (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration), under different scenarios have been investigated in relation to the potential impacts on main crops. A set of relevant climate extreme and agro-meteorological indices was further used to estimate the potential climate change impacts on agriculture. The study was focused on the interaction with farmers, the main actors of the climate adaptation process in the area, aiming to evaluate their perception and response to climate change. The research approach was mainly done through face-to-face interviews, as farmers did not respond positively to organised meetings. An important difference was noticed in terms of adaptive capacity between the large farms with a high adaptive capacity and low subsistence farms (family-run farms), the most vulnerable category to both socio-economic and climate change. The main climate adaptation measure considered crucial by the farmers is the rehabilitation/construction of irrigation systems. The study provides useful scientific insights which could improve the understanding of farmers and decision-makers on the potential impacts of the future climate change on crops, but also to mainstream climate adaptation actions in the agriculture policy.

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