A feasibility study for the application of climate change vulnerability assessments on species in the Tallurutiup Imanga National Marine Conservation Area

Abstract

Climate change is disproportionately affecting Arctic ecosystems and their resident species, but knowledge gaps complicate conservation planning. A proof‐of‐concept application of existing trait‐based vulnerability assessment frameworks were applied to nine species from three different taxa (cetaceans, pinnipeds, marine fish) to determine their vulnerability under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. A literature review and data gap analysis were performed to quantify vulnerability and recommend future research priorities. Each assessed species was found to be highly vulnerable to climate change, with char, cod, and walrus being the most vulnerable. The largest data gaps include outdated or missing abundance measurements mortality rates in both marine mammals and fish, and reproductive behaviours for fish specifically. Future assessments should consider multiple emissions scenarios that match the ranges of migratory species not confined to the TINMCA. Providing a method to preliminarily evaluate climate change vulnerability may help mitigate issues brought by limited species experts, such as respondent fatigue. More refined scores will require the assistance of species experts, including biologists and Indigenous knowledge holders.