A finite element model for estimating time-dependent reliability of a corroded pipeline elbow

Abstract

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to investigate the failure probability in an irregular area in pipeline (elbow) over its lifetime. The reliability analysis is performed by using of an enhanced first-order reliability method / second-order reliability method (FORM/SORM) and Monte Carlo simulation methods: a numerical model of a corroded pipeline elbow was developed by using finite element method; also, an empirical mechanical behavior model has been proposed. A numerical case with high, moderate and low corrosion rates was conducted to calculate the deferent reliability indexes. The found results can be used in an application case for managing an irregular area in pipeline lifetime. Hence, it is necessary to ensure a rigorous inspection for this part of a pipeline to avoid human and environmental disasters.Design/methodology/approachThe present paper deals a methodology for estimating time-dependent reliability of a corroded pipeline elbow. Firstly, a numerical model of corroded elbow is proposed by using the finite element method. A mechanical behavior under the corrosion defect in time is studied, and an empirical model was also developed.FindingsThe result of this paper can be summarized as: a mechanical characterization of the material was carried out experimentally. A numerical model of a corroded pipeline elbow was developed by using the finite element method. An empirical mechanical behavior model has been developed. The reliability of a corroding pipe elbow can be significantly affected by corrosion and residual stress. A proportional relationship has been found between probability of failure and corrosion rate. The yield stress and pressure service have an important sensitivity factor.Originality/valueAiming to help Algerian gas and oil companies' decision makers, the present paper illustrates a methodology for estimating time-dependent reliability of a corroded pipeline elbow over its lifetime using numerical models by applying the finite element method. Firstly, a numerical model of a corroded pipe elbow was developed and coupled with an empirical mechanical behavior model, which is also proposed. A probabilistic is then developed to provide realistic corrosion parameters and time modeling, leading to the real impact on the lifetime of an elbow zone in pipeline. The reliability indexes and probability of failure for various corrosion rates with and without issued residual stress are computed using Monte Carlo simulation and FORM.

Contact stress reliability analysis based on first order second moment for variable hyperbolic circular arc gear

“…When g ( x ) > 0 , it indicates that the system is able to achieve the predetermined design function, defined. 20…”

A reliability analysis strategy for main shaft of wind turbine using importance sampling and Kriging model

“…Reliability is the ability of a product to complete its specified functions within a limited time and other specific conditions (Ma et al. , 2016; Nahal and Khelif, 2021). The specified functions mean that the product has its performance and parameter indicators.…”

Tensile Deformation and Fracture Behavior of API-5L X70 Line Pipe Steel

“…Quality of life improvement and intensive industrial manufacturing development require large amounts of energy carriers, such as hydrocarbons. Trunk pipelines are often employed to deliver hydrocarbons from distant reservoirs often distinguished by adverse climatic conditions [1,2]. One of the most promising ways to increase cost efficiency of trunk pipelines is to increase their operation pressure by using high-strength steel capable of operating in adverse climatic conditions [3][4][5][6][7][8].…”