A Flexible Approach to Forecasting Coastline Change on Wave-Dominated Beaches

Kinsela, Michael A.; Morris, Bede; Daley, Marc; Hanslow, David J.

doi:10.2112/si75-191.1

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…As such, c f was applied as a triangular probability function (a = 0.7, b = 0.85, c = 1), thereby allowing a maximum 30% reduction in the fluctuating beach erosion volume, due to the presence of the siltstone material in the frontal dune. That is consistent with the reduced response to storms observed at Lake Cathie Beach on the Mid-North Coast ( Figure 1A), where indurated sand (coffee rock) lenses within the frontal dune contribute to about a 30% reduction in beach erosion relative to similarly exposed beaches in the region [61].…”

Section: Local Scale (Wamberal Beach)supporting

confidence: 85%

“…We use a simple shoreline encroachment model that scales in complexity with the detail of data available to inform the modelling approach [61]. Encroachment refers to cumulative erosion into a pre-existing beach-dune system, in which sediment is progressively lost from the beach to the littoral zone, where it may be transferred offshore, alongshore, or into tidal inlets [62].…”

Section: Simple Shoreline Encroachment Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Second-Pass Assessment of Potential Exposure to Shoreline Change in New South Wales, Australia, Using a Sediment Compartments Framework

Kinsela

Morris

Linklater

et al. 2017

JMSE

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Abstract:The impacts of coastal erosion are expected to increase through the present century, and beyond, as accelerating global mean sea-level rise begins to enhance or dominate local shoreline dynamics. In many cases, beach (and shoreline) response to sea-level rise will not be limited to passive inundation, but may be amplified or moderated by sediment redistribution between the beach and the broader coastal sedimentary system. We describe a simple and scalable approach for estimating the potential for beach erosion and shoreline change on wave-dominated sandy beaches, using a coastal sediment compartments framework to parameterise the geomorphology and connectivity of sediment-sharing coastal systems. We apply the approach at regional and local scales in order to demonstrate the sensitivity of forecasts to the available data. The regional-scale application estimates potential present and future asset exposure to coastal erosion in New South Wales, Australia. The assessment suggests that shoreline recession due to sea-level rise could drive a steep increase in the number and distribution of asset exposure in the present century. The local-scale example demonstrates the potential sensitivity of erosion impacts to the distinctive coastal geomorphology of individual compartments. Our findings highlight that the benefits of applying a coastal sediment compartments framework increase with the coverage and detail of geomorphic data that is available to parameterise sediment-sharing systems and sediment budget principles. Such data is crucial to reducing uncertainty in forecasts by understanding the potential response of key sediment sources and sinks (e.g., the shoreface, estuaries) to sea-level rise in different settings.

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Section: Local Scale (Wamberal Beach)supporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Simple Shoreline Encroachment Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Second-Pass Assessment of Potential Exposure to Shoreline Change in New South Wales, Australia, Using a Sediment Compartments Framework

Kinsela

Morris

Linklater

et al. 2017

JMSE

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“…Common barriers to the uptake of a variety of climate services have been extensively discussed in the literature [3,4,18,[102][103][104][105][106]. Table 3 examines the extent to which these common barriers apply to the case of CCS.…”

Section: Common Barriers In the Development Of Climate Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lack of understanding of the decision-making context [3] Partial (see Section 2): for example, sea level projections have been used in coastal engineering design at the municipality scale in Australia [32,106] Differences in working times for scientists and decision makers providing or using climate services [4] Yes: the French example shows that by establishing a regulation in favour of adaptation, coastal stakeholders require operational products within six months or a year (e.g., multidecadal shoreline erosion predictions), while research has hardly provided with a satisfactory level of confidence so far in this area (Section 3.1). Lack of formalized requirements from translators of climate information into services [101,103] Partial: coastal service providers have hardly provided detailed formalized requirements for sea level information besides Nicholls et al [78]; see Section 3.3)…”

Section: Common Barriers In the Development Of Climate Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of them rely on equilibrium profile assumptions, such as the Bruun rule, to model the impacts of SLR [108,109,[129][130][131]. While flexible probabilistic modelling approaches for estimating setback lines from erosion are increasingly being developed [106,116,132,133], care is required in interpreting the uncertainties reported in IPCC SLR scenarios, particularly when representing the uncertainties by probability distributions (see Section 3.4.3 below). Similar cautions apply to the calculation of sea level allowances [32,[90][91][92].…”

Section: Lack Of Formalized Requirements From Translators Of Climate mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

Cozannet

Nicholls

Hinkel

et al. 2017

JMSE

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For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS). To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1) research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2) cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

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Central East Region

Short

2019

Australian Coastal Systems

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A Flexible Approach to Forecasting Coastline Change on Wave-Dominated Beaches

Cited by 13 publications

References 11 publications

Second-Pass Assessment of Potential Exposure to Shoreline Change in New South Wales, Australia, Using a Sediment Compartments Framework

Second-Pass Assessment of Potential Exposure to Shoreline Change in New South Wales, Australia, Using a Sediment Compartments Framework

Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

Central East Region

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