A Framework of a Comprehensive Uncertainty Analysis of the Analytic Hierarchy Process Methodology in the Context of Environmental Decision Making 

Abstract

The paper presents a framework to elaborate uncertainties in the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology. This is done by a research design that allows the definition of environmental decision making and a systematically and explicitly formulated definition of uncertainty, which embraces a denotation, a categorisation and a quantification of uncertainties. The quantification is conducted by a simulation experiment which uses random matrices as data basis to compute different uncertainty scenarios. Furthermore, a group decision scenario is simulated. Expected conclusions include a deeper understanding of different uncertainties, their combinations and their contribution to the incorporated uncertainty in the computed output priorities. Hence, recommendations regarding environmental decision making processes are formulated. However, limitations may arise due to the fact that randomly generated values may be different to human judgements and to time restrictions that limit the range of simulation experiments.

A comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the analytic hierarchy process methodology applied in the context of environmental decision making

“…The understanding and definitions of “uncertainty” vary according to the scientific disciplines, practice areas, and problem approaches (Bammer & Smithson, ). As an explicitly formulated conceptualization of uncertainty involved in applying the AHP is missing, such an approach was presented at the International Symposium of the AHP 2014 (Toth, Wolfslehner, & Vacik, ). The proposed understanding of uncertainty is primarily based on Walker et al () who provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model‐based decision support.…”