A future for small business? Prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning

Atherton, Andrew

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.002

Cited by 15 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The framework for business scenarios was provided by the analysis of the three main drivers, which according to [14] shape the nature of the future economy. The drivers included:…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These were [14]: -Business population: domination of small business economy or large business economy; -Connectivity: high levels of economic integration and business connectivity or fragmentation and isolation combined with a lack of connectivity between businesses; -Response to connectivity: embracing approaches or defensive reaction to future forms of connectivity.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenarios developed in this way provide a future context for actors and organisations with the intention to informing management and decision in the smaller business [14]. -The second-a micro perspective approach focuses on scenarios as a planning and organisational learning tool or method, where individuals (company representatives) are participants in the exercise and recipients of the outcome [50].…”

Section: Literature Overview and Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addressing the first -macro perspective -approach the authors have chosen to follow the methodology proposed by [14], who opted to use counterfactual thinking as a means of developing scenarios and based his analyses on the combinations of three key drivers of future economic and business activity. This allowed testing the so developed scenarios using datasets that assessed each key driver in the context of the current economy and allowed to match the four Visegrad countries with the scenarios.…”

Section: Literature Overview and Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…-The authors build on previous research undertaken by [14] and implement a methodological approach, which allows to combine quantitative and qualitative scenario building methods; -The analyses are in progress until the end of January 2017. and can be monitored on the project website 3 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The future of business in Visegrad region

Sacio-Szymańska

Kononiuk

Tommei³

et al. 2016

Eur J Futures Res

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The paper aims to advance Futures Research by outlining the context and development perspectives of business Foresight in Visegrad region (that is in: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary). Authors apply their research to tackle present challenges associated with the limited awareness of Foresight and constrained access to Foresight training offer in the region, which leads to insufficient Futures Literacy competences among managers and thus stiffens the opportunity to take advantage of Foresight in business practice. The paper presents two perspectives of analyzing business futures. A macro perspective, which concerns possible development scenarios of Visegrad economies, and a micro perspective, which concerns possible development scenarios of individual companies from Visegrad region. The methodology for the macro analyses involves the discussion of the futures of business in Visegrad economies based on quantitative indicators related to trade balance, foreign direct investment and SMEs prevalence analysed over 2002 -2014 period. Whereas, the results derived from the micro level analysis are based on the expert-based scenario building exercise executed by Visegrad entrepreneurs participating in a 2-day international Foresight workshop. The research portrays the results achieved so far in the FOR_V4 project: BMobilising Corporate Foresight potential among V4 countries^, which aims to bring futures knowledge and techniques to managers, who are expected to become BCorporate foresight evangelists^in Visegrad region.

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“…The framework for business scenarios was provided by the analysis of the three main drivers, which according to [14] shape the nature of the future economy. The drivers included:…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Overview and Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Overview and Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations