A Fuzzy Logic Model to Describe the Cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena Blooms in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Laanemets, Jaan; Lilover, Madis‐Jaak; Raudsepp, Urmas; Autio, Riitta; Vahtera, Emil; Lips, Inga; Lips, Urmas

doi:10.1007/s10750-005-1004-x

Cited by 46 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Over the last two decades, two general approaches have been developed to forecast Chla. The first was based on statistics through either regression [71], artificial neural networks [72,73], or fuzzy logic [74]. The second was based on physical and biological processes, which could reveal controlling factors and causal relationships [75][76][77][78][79][80].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An EOF-Based Algorithm to Estimate Chlorophyll a Concentrations in Taihu Lake from MODIS Land-Band Measurements: Implications for Near Real-Time Applications and Forecasting Models

Duan

et al. 2014

Remote Sensing

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For near real-time water applications, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua are currently the only satellite instruments that can provide well-calibrated top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance data over the global aquatic environments. However, TOA radiance data in the MODIS ocean bands over turbid atmosphere in east China often saturate, leaving only four land bands to use. In this study, an approach based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis has been developed and validated to estimate chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla, μg/L) in surface waters of Taihu Lake, the third largest freshwater lake in China. The EOF approach analyzed the spectral variance of normalized Rayleigh-corrected reflectance (Rrc) data at 469, 555, 645, and 859 nm, and subsequently related that variance to Chla using 28 concurrent MODIS and field measurements. This empirical algorithm was then validated using another 30 independent concurrent MODIS and field measurements. Image analysis and radiative transfer simulations indicated that the algorithm appeared to be tolerant to aerosol perturbations, with unbiased RMS uncertainties of <80% for Chla ranging between 3 and 100 μg/L. Application OPEN ACCESSRemote Sens. 2014, 6 10695 of the algorithm to a total of 853 MODIS images between 2000 and 2013 under cloud-free conditions revealed spatial distribution patterns and seasonal changes that are consistent to previous findings based on floating algae mats. The current study can provide additional quantitative estimates of Chla that can be assimilated in an existing forecast model, which showed improved performance over the use of a previous Chla algorithm. However, the empirical nature, relatively large uncertainties, and limited number of spectral bands all point to the need of further improvement in data availability and accuracy with future satellite sensors.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An EOF-Based Algorithm to Estimate Chlorophyll a Concentrations in Taihu Lake from MODIS Land-Band Measurements: Implications for Near Real-Time Applications and Forecasting Models

Duan

et al. 2014

Remote Sensing

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“…Some of the first observations on excess phosphorus remaining after the spring bloom were made in the mid-1980s (33), and has been a recurring phenomenon. The growth of diazotrophic cyanobacteria is considered to be phosphorus limited, and a considerable share of their phosphorus requirement arrives from the phosphorus remaining after the spring bloom (34).…”

Section: Autotrophic Carbon Production and Sedimentation Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea

Conley

Björck

Bonsdorff

et al. 2009

Environ. Sci. Technol.

502

392

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Hypoxia, a growing worldwide problem, has been intermittently present in the modern Baltic Sea since its formation ca. 8000 cal. yr BP. However, both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia have increased with anthropogenic eutrophication due to nutrient inputs. Physical processes, which control stratification and the renewal of oxygen in bottom waters, are important constraints on the formation and maintenance of hypoxia. Climate controlled inflows of saline water from the North Sea through the Danish Straits is a critical controlling factor governing the spatial extent and duration of hypoxia. Hypoxia regulates the biogeochemical cycles of both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in the water column and sediments. Significant amounts of P are currently released from sediments, an order of magnitude larger than anthropogenic inputs. The Baltic Sea is unique for coastal marine ecosystems experiencing N losses in hypoxic waters below the halocline. Although benthic communities in the Baltic Sea are naturally constrained by salinity gradients, hypoxia has resulted in habitat loss over vast areas and the elimination of benthic fauna, and has severely disrupted benthic food webs. Nutrient load reductions are needed to reduce the extent, severity, and effects of hypoxia.

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“…A combined application of fuzzy logic with the deterministic Delft3D-ECO model to describe the formation and horizontal distribution of surface water blooms of toxic cyanobacteria is given by Ibelings et al (2003). Laanemets et al (2006) use fuzzy logic to predict cyanobacteria blooms of Nodularia in the Baltic, Blauw et al (2010) use fuzzy logic to predict foam on beaches.…”

Section: Use Of Kalman Filters and Fuzzy Logicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

et al. 2010

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A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: superindividual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.

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A Fuzzy Logic Model to Describe the Cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena Blooms in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Cited by 46 publications

References 22 publications

An EOF-Based Algorithm to Estimate Chlorophyll a Concentrations in Taihu Lake from MODIS Land-Band Measurements: Implications for Near Real-Time Applications and Forecasting Models

An EOF-Based Algorithm to Estimate Chlorophyll a Concentrations in Taihu Lake from MODIS Land-Band Measurements: Implications for Near Real-Time Applications and Forecasting Models

Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

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