A Heat Loss Sensitivity Index to Inform Housing Retrofit Policy in the UK

Abstract

A substantial number of dwellings in the UK have poor building fabric, leading to higher carbon emissions, fuel expenses, and the risk of cold homes. To tackle these challenges, domestic energy efficiency policies are being implemented. One effective approach is the use of energy models, which enable sensitivity analysis to provide valuable insights for policymakers. This study employed dynamic thermal simulation models for 32 housing archetypes representative of solid-walled homes in the UK to calculate the heat loss and the sensitivity coefficient per building fabric feature, after which a metric Heat Loss Sensitivity (HLS) index was established to guide the selection of retrofit features for each archetype. The building fabric features’ inputs were then adjusted to establish both lower and upper bounds, simulating low and high performance levels, to predict the how space heating energy demand varies. The analysis was extended by replicating the process with various scenarios considering climates, window-to-wall ratios, and overshadowing. The findings highlight the external wall as the primary consideration in retrofitting due to its high HLS index, even at high window-to-wall ratios. It was also established that dwelling type is important in retrofit decision-making, with floor and loft retrofits having a high HLS index in bungalows. Furthermore, the analysis underlines the necessity for Standard Assessment Procedure assessors to evaluate loft U-value and air permeability rates prior to implementing retrofit measures, given the significance of these factors in the lower and upper bounds analysis. Researchers globally can replicate the HLS index approach, facilitating the implementation of housing retrofit policies worldwide.