A Long-term View on the Business Model of Newspaper Publishing: International Comparison and Quantitative Modelling for Germany as Case in point

Abstract

Although consequences are still debated, financials in several countries indicate that the traditional newspaper publishers' business is not sustainable in the long term. To overcome speculation we built a quantitative model for newspapers' profit margins to derive ten-year scenarios in a systematic way. The simulation is based on a conceptualisation of a 'business model' that can be operationalized. It was designed and tested for specific newspapers in Germany, but is based on general assumptions and of international applicability.Even with optimistic values for print-online substitution, online usage still on the rise, and mobile devices becoming widespread, additional digital revenues of newspapers' brands most likely cannot compensate for losses in print. In addition to exploiting editorial content across multiple platforms, publishers should explore options beyond these: developing 'dynamic capabilities' and possibly setting-up 'ambidextrous' organizations. (Unless, of course, they wait for subsidies to manifest or rely on an engagement of civil society for financing journalism.)

La crisis de la prensa escrita: una revisión bibliográfica para repensarla desde Latinoamérica

“…A continuación, se describirán brevemente aquellos aspectos sobresalientes. Los investigadores han encuadrado sus análisis particularmente en la comprensión de los modelos de negocio de los medios (Brandstetter & Schmalhofer, 2014;Doyle, 2013;Ihlström Eriksson et al, 2016;Kolo, 2016;Picard, 2014; para comprender, en muchos casos, la transición digital que muchas de estas instituciones de noticias están experimentando (Rothmann & Koch, 2014;Villi & Hayashi, 2017). Otros investigadores han conceptualizado el fenómeno desde el giro sociológico de la economía de los medios (Schlesinger & Doyle, 2015).…”

Chronicle of a death foretold: The enactment of patriarchy and class in print newspaper readership

“…Print newspapers have had a central role in the information ecosystem for centuries (Habermas 2015). They have been undergoing an economic crisis in the past decades due to severe loss of circulation and advertising revenues (Abernathy, 2018; Doyle, 2013; Kolo, 2016; Van der Burg and Van den Bulck, 2017). In Argentina, print consumption has fallen from 45% to 23% between 2017 and 2020 (Reuters, 2020).…”

Strategic challenges of newspaper publishing in an international perspective

“…With Christensen, Skok, and Allworth (2012), in their seminal essay on “disruptive innovation,” as early progenitors, academic research also came to more drastic conclusions about the future of newspaper publishing, questioning its survival and the sustainability of its traditional business model, respectively (e.g., Kolo, 2016; Thurman, Picard, Myllylahti, & Krumsvik, 2018). We see this heralding again a new phase of digital transformation in newspaper publishing: venturing into both new business areas and models—possibly also beyond editorial (news) content.…”

“…To this, add the unbundling of content, services, market places, and so on and a competition with new players in each category (losing revenues and profit margin), paralleled by a high share of fixed costs (cf. Kolo, 2016).…”

“…However, in mature economies, recent studies (Kuhn, 2011, for France; Lehtisaari et al, 2012, for Finland; Casero-Ripollés & Izquierdo-Castillo, 2013; Goyanes & Dürrenberg, 2014, for Spain; Dekavalla, 2015, for Scotland; Cawley, 2017, for Ireland; Kolo, 2016; Kolo, Kunz, & Grasemann, in press, for Germany; Chyi & Tenenboim, 2017; Fan, 2013, for the United States; Villi & Hayashi, 2017, for Japan) show unanimously that digital revenues, on the basis of editorial content, do grow rather slowly and where the studies provide overall financial increases (which is most often not the case), they are slower by far than print declines—a phenomenon also observed already in some developing economies (e.g., Isyaku, Latiff, & Nasidi, 2018). Nevertheless, in selected emerging economies, the print business is still booming (cf.…”