A Markov Chain Model for COVID19 in Mexico City

Abstract

This paper presents a model for COVID19 in Mexico City. The data analyzed were considered from the appearance of the first case in Mexico until July 2021. In this first approximation the states considered were Susceptible, Infected, Hospitalized, Intensive Care Unit, Intubated, and Dead. As a consequence of the lack of coronavirus testing, the number of infected and dead people is underestimated, although the results obtained give a good approximation to the evolution of the pandemic in Mexico City. The model is based on a discrete-time Markov chain considering data provided by the Mexican government, the main objective is to estimate the transient probabilities from one state to another for the Mexico City case.Keywords Probability • Stochastic Processes • Markov Chain • COVID19 * Use footnote for providing further information about author (webpage, alternative address)-not for acknowledging funding agencies.