A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID–19 Pandemic in Uganda

Abstract

The human-infecting corona virus disease caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was declared a global pandemic on March 11th, 2020. Current human deaths due to the infection have raised the threat globally with only 1 African country free of Virus (Lesotho) as of May 6th, 2020. Different countries have adopted different interventions at different stages of the outbreak, with social distancing being the first option while lock down the preferred option for flattening the curve at the peak of the pandemic. Lock down is aimed at adherence to social distancing, preserve the health system and improve survival. We propose a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Expected recoveries (SEIR) mathematical model to study the impact of a variety of prevention and control strategies Uganda has applied since the eruption of the pandemic in the country. We analyze the model using available data to find the infection-free, endemic/infection steady states and the basic reproduction number. In addition, a sensitivity analysis done shows that the transmission rate and the rate at which persons acquire the virus, have a positive influence on the basic reproduction number. On other hand the rate of evacuation by rescue ambulance greatly reduces the reproduction number. The results have potential to inform the impact and effect of early strict interventions including lock down in resource limited settings and social distancing.

The impact of covid-19 on midwives’ practice in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania: A reflective account

“…Uganda has imposed the most strict lockdown, while Tanzanian restrictions have been less severe than the other two countries. In Uganda, lockdown entailed closing the normal conducting of business, severely restricting lifestyle of people; leaving only essential aspects of the community functioning ( Mbabazi et al, 2020 ). Public transport was suspended, motor cyclists were prohibited from carrying passengers and only allowed to carry small items including delivering food to individual households.…”

A Scoping Analysis of Theories, Models, and Standard Operating Procedures for the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda

“…There are several theories and interventions that came up in a wake to fight the virus. These included mathematical or statistical models, lockdowns, clinical trials, treatment options and vaccination among others [6,7,8,2].…”

“…A model [8] focused on the rate of infection with time and it could ably predict and project the pandemic for some period ahead. Several other studies especially on the long-term symptoms of COVID-19 were identified [11].…”

Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in the Ugandan Health Sector: a review of Literature

“…Implementing an AI-based system does not come cheap as many associated activities and requirements are costly or even hard to obtain especially in developing countries like Uganda. Authors of the reviewed papers highlighted the financial hardships faced in acquiring and annotating datasets [17,24], hardware and computing resources [24,43,49], and system maintenance and upgrading [29,42]. Modern AI-driven systems leverage deep learning neural networks that require very high computing hardware compared to traditional machine learning algorithms.…”