A mathematical model to describe the demographic dynamics of long-lived raptor species

The Eurasian Black Vulture is a globally threatened raptor that in Southeast Europe only occurs in an isolated population in Greece. We examined the population viability for the species under demographic fluctuations and conservation scenarios. The current population showed no possibility of extinction for the next 100 years. However, simulated scenarios showed that the most important factor affecting the viability of the species was medium and high poisoning, leading to 94.8% and 100% probability of extinction, respectively. Furthermore, high reduction of supplementary feeding highlighted an 18.6% extinction possibility. Also, a high increase of wind farms in the area may result in 17.4% extinction possibility. Additionally, the non-establishment of the feeding station in 1987 in the study area would have resulted in an extinction risk of 7%. The species can be translocated to the Olympus National Park by releasing 80 juveniles over 10 years. The implementation of the conservation scenarios concerning the establishment of a supplementary feeding site network, and the reintroduction of the Eurasian Black Vulture in its historic range, along with the elimination of threats posed by poisoning, low food availability, and wind farms would increase the probability of the species persistence and allow the population to become a source for dispersal across Southeast Europe.

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A mathematical model to describe the demographic dynamics of long-lived raptor species

Cited by 2 publications

References 14 publications

Cinereous Vulture (Aegypius monachus)

Cinereous Vulture (Aegypius monachus)

Population Viability and Conservation Strategies for the Eurasian Black Vulture (Aegypius monachus) in Southeast Europe

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