A Methodology for Identifying Coastal Cultural Heritage Assets Exposed to Future Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Abstract

Coastal areas are currently exposed to numerous hazards exacerbated by climate change, including erosion, flooding, storm surges, and other sea level rise phenomena. Mediterranean countries, in particular, are facing a constant shrinking of coastal areas. This region also hosts significant cultural heritage assets, including several UNESCO World Heritage Sites. The present research demonstrates a methodological approach to assess the current and future exposure of Mediterranean coastal areas and heritage assets to Sea Level Rise using open access data regarding elevation, vertical ground motion, and Sea Level Change factors (e.g., ice sheets, glaciers, etc.). The future projections regard 2050 and 2100 and are based on RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The datasets used include Copernicus GLO-30 DSM, the European Ground Motion Service’s dataset on Vertical Ground Motion, the Sea Level Change Projections’ Regional Dataset by NASA, and a hybrid coastline dataset created for the present research purposes to assist in delineating the study area. The research results demonstrate that Greece, Italy, and France’s mainland and cultural heritage assets already face SLR-related hazards but are expected to be further exposed in the future, always taking into consideration the high level of uncertainty regarding SLR projections and RCP scenarios’ hypotheses.