A Methodology for Supersonic Commercial Market Estimation and Environmental Impact Evaluation (Part II)

Abstract

With the increasing research efforts in civil supersonic transport (SST) during the past decade, companies like Boom and Aerion are making the comeback of civil supersonic flight more promising than ever. Both companies believe that substantial demand exists in civil supersonic aviation, and opportunities are present. However, many regulatory hurdles and operational constraints impose strict limitations on supersonic flight and should not be overlooked. In addition, these aircraft are likely to have higher fuel burn per passenger compared to that for similarly-sized subsonic aircraft, and their effect on fleet-level emissions is unknown. In Part I of this two-part study, the research team successfully demonstrated a methodology that employs a bottom-up approach for estimating the future demand for supersonic commercial operation and its associated fuel burn and CO 2 emission, using only publicly available subsonic baseline-fleet data. This paper seeks to fill the gaps and assumptions identified in the Part I paper by using robust, non-public data, and provides updated results on market estimation and environmental impact (in terms of both CO 2 and NO x ) between 2035 and 2050.

Forecasting the Global Supersonic Business Aviation Flight Movements Up to 2050

“…In terms of the estimated number of daily flights in 2035 and 2050, the estimates are on the same order of magnitude. However, the number of routes served by SSBJs is estimated to be one order of magnitude higher than the routes served by commercial supersonic transport [5]. As a result, the key characteristic of business aviation (unscheduled) movements is well-reflected.…”

“…An SSBJ should consume less fuel and emit less amount of pollutants than a commercial supersonic transport (SST) since the SSBJ is smaller and is expected to have a lower supersonic cruise Mach number. However, since the number of daily SSBJ flights is estimated to be on the same level as SST flights [5], it would be interesting to compute the fuel burn and emissions for an SSBJ network for comparison.…”

“…In the past two decades, numerous market studies have been conducted on SSBJ aircraft demand, and the report published by George Mason University provides a great summary of these studies [2]. In terms of supersonic flight demand forecasts, existing literature mainly focused on commercial operations [3][4][5][6]. Interestingly, [4] investigated a special case of operating supersonic business jets as airliners for the commercial market.…”