The incompressible Euler equations on a sphere are fundamental in models of oceanic and atmospheric dynamics. The long-time behaviour of solutions is largely unknown; statistical mechanics predicts a steady vorticity configuration, but detailed numerical results in the literature contradict this theory, yielding instead persistent unsteadiness. Such numerical results were obtained using artificial hyperviscosity to account for the cascade of enstrophy into smaller scales. Hyperviscosity, however, destroys the underlying geometry of the phase flow (such as conservation of Casimir functions), and therefore might affect the qualitative long-time behaviour. Here we develop an efficient numerical method for long-time simulations that preserve the geometric features of the exact flow, in particular conservation of Casimirs. Long-time simulations on a non-rotating sphere then reveal three possible outcomes for generic initial conditions: the formation of either 2, 3, or 4 coherent vortex structures. These numerical results contradict both the statistical mechanics theory and previous numerical results suggesting that the generic behaviour should be 4 coherent vortex structures. Furthermore, through integrability theory for point vortex dynamics on the sphere, we present a theoretical model which describe the mechanism by which the three observed regimes appear. We show that there is a correlation between a first integral γ (the ratio of total angular momentum and the square root of enstrophy) and the long-time behaviour: γ small, intermediate, and large yields most likely 4, 3, or 2 coherent vortex formations. Our findings thus suggest that the likely long-time behaviour can be predicted from the first integral γ.