A model-based estimate of winter distribution and abundance of white-tailed deer in the Adirondack Park

Abstract

In the Adirondack Park region of northern New York, USA, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose (Alces alces) co-occur along a temperate-boreal forest ecotone. In this region, moose exist as a small and vulnerable low-density population and over-browsing by white-tailed deer is known to reduce regeneration, sustainability, and health of forests. Here, we assess the distribution and abundance of white-tailed deer at a broad spatial scale relevant for deer and moose management in northern New York. We used density surface modeling (DSM) under a conventional distance sampling framework, tied to a winter aerial survey, to create a spatially explicit estimate of white-tailed deer abundance and density across a vast, northern forest region. We estimated 16,352 white-tailed deer (95% CI 11,762–22,734) throughout the Adirondack Park with local density ranging between 0.00–5.73 deer/km2. Most of the Adirondack Park (91.2%) supported white-tailed deer densities of ≤2 individuals/km2. White-tailed deer density increased with increasing proximity to anthropogenic land cover such as timber cuts, roads, and agriculture and decreased in areas with increasing elevation and days with snow cover. We conclude that climate change will be more favorable for white-tailed deer than for moose because milder winters and increased growing seasons will likely have a pronounced influence on deer abundance and distribution across the Adirondack Park. Therefore, identifying specific environmental conditions facilitating the expansion of white-tailed deer into areas with low-density moose populations can assist managers in anticipating potential changes in ungulate distribution and abundance and to develop appropriate management actions to mitigate negative consequences such as disease spread and increased competition for limiting resources.

Moose and white‐tailed deer mortality peaks in fall and late winter

“…This result matches prior work indicating winter severity during the current and preceding year can cause late‐winter survival bottlenecks and reduce survival (Mech et al 1987, Kautz et al 2020). This result also supports models indicating northern deer distributions will expand as winter severity decreases with climate change (Kennedy‐Slaney et al 2018, Hinton et al 2022), which may have negative effects on moose populations (Barber‐Meyer and Mech 2016, Carstensen et al 2018, Oliveira‐Santos et al 2021). We acknowledge, however, that the metric we used to assess winter severity (CWSI; DelGiudice et al 2002) may not sufficiently explain winter weather variability and its influence on moose and deer.…”

“…This result matches prior work indicating winter severity during the current and preceding year can cause late-winter survival bottlenecks and reduce survival(Mech et al 1987, Kautz et al 2020. This result also supports models indicating northern deer distributions will expand as winter severity decreases with climate change(Kennedy-Slaney et al 2018, Hinton et al 2022, which may have negative effects on moose populations (Barber-…”

Interspecific interactions disrupted by roads

“…These differences in road tolerance can lead to altered patterns of spatial, temporal, and dietary segregation. For example, herbivores like the white‐tailed deer or the red deer ( Cervus elaphus ) gain a competitive advantage by occupying and exploiting resources closer to roads than their competitors moose and roe deer ( Capreolus capreolus ), respectively (Torres et al ., 2012; Hinton et al ., 2022). A similar pattern has been described for predators: black bear and pampas fox ( Pseudalopex gymnocercus ) tend to use habitat closer to paths or dirt roads, gaining an advantage in terms of the spatial partitioning arising from their competition with grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) and crab‐eating fox ( Cerdocyon thous ), respectively.…”

How long will it take for the planet to transition from fossil fuels to solar energy: Is the media effectively covering this topic in New York State?

“…Bowen's concern in the article was spreading the consequences of the pathogenetic parasites and fungus to the other two mountains, Gothic and Marcy, just like what happened in Adirondack with trees and deterioration of the needles (Bowen, 2020). Additionally, Hinton in "A model-based estimate of winter distribution and abundance of white-tailed deer in the Adirondack Park" stated the latest consequences in the Adirondack Park, where a rare and vulnerable small population of deer, along with moose (Alces alces) and elk (Cervus canadensis), have been affected by fossil fuels that mitigate from the acid rain (Hinton, 2022). Haradhan's research findings reveal acid rain emissions causing acidification, with pH levels as low as 4.34 in the Adirondack Mountains region in New York and affecting lakes in New England and Connecticut.…”