A Model for Predicting Terrorist Network Lethality and Cohesiveness

Collins, Botambu; Hoang, Dinh Tuyen; Hwang, Dosam

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-55789-8_16

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Nevertheless, the modelling of criminal behaviours involves the analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of the commission of the crimes [23,27]. This fact is the reason that network theory is useful for the drawing inferences on antilegislative actions and policies [18][19][20][21]23,[28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Entropy and Network Centralities as Intelligent Tools for the Investigation of Terrorist Organizations

Spyropoulos

Bratsas

Makris

et al. 2021

Entropy

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In recent years, law enforcement authorities have increasingly used mathematical tools to support criminal investigations, such as those related to terrorism. In this work, two relevant questions are discussed: “How can the different roles of members of a terrorist organization be recognized?” and “are there early signs of impending terrorist acts?” These questions are addressed using the tools of entropy and network theory, more specifically centralities (degree, betweenness, clustering) and their entropies. These tools were applied to data (physical contacts) of four real terrorist networks from different countries. The different roles of the members are clearly recognized from the values of the selected centralities. An early sign of impending terrorist acts is the evolutionary pattern of the values of the entropies of the selected centralities. These results have been confirmed in all four terrorist networks. The conclusion is expected to be useful to law enforcement authorities to identify the roles of the members of terrorist organizations as the members with high centrality and to anticipate when a terrorist attack is imminent, by observing the evolution of the entropies of the centralities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Entropy and Network Centralities as Intelligent Tools for the Investigation of Terrorist Organizations

Spyropoulos

Bratsas

Makris

et al. 2021

Entropy

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“…c) How can a terrorist network be dismantled? This paper is a revised and expanded version of an earlier work by B.Collins et al [33] which was presented at the International Conference on Industrial, Engineering Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems IEA/AIE 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…continuity of δ(.) = δ( lim n→∞ δ n−1 (0)) = δ(P ex )(33) Proof that P ex is least solution in the equation (see Theorem 1). If we assume then for some ξ, where 0≤ ξ ≤ 1, ξ = δ(ξ).…”

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confidence: 95%

A New Model for Predicting and Dismantling a Complex Terrorist Network

et al. 2022

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The perennial nature of terrorist attacks in recent times has ushered in a new wave of study in the field of terrorism known as social network analysis (SNA). Terrorist groups operate as a social network stealthily to enhance their efficacy rate, thereby making sure their activities are cloaked. This study proposes a new method to uncover and dismantle a terror network by applying a 4-centrality measure. After establishing link prediction using centrality measures, we dismantle the network based on Galton-Watson extinction probability. This study examines the 9/11 incident and measures the link prediction of the M-19 network. In curbing terrorist network activities, the elimination of a highly ranked node in the network is a condition sine qua non. We further examine the lethality of the network as well as network bonding to obtain the degree of cohesiveness, which is a crucial determinant for network survival. Our experimental results indicate that link prediction is vital in uncloaking a terror network, which is the core of counterterrorism.

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A Model for Predicting Terrorist Network Lethality and Cohesiveness

Cited by 2 publications

References 8 publications

Entropy and Network Centralities as Intelligent Tools for the Investigation of Terrorist Organizations

Entropy and Network Centralities as Intelligent Tools for the Investigation of Terrorist Organizations

A New Model for Predicting and Dismantling a Complex Terrorist Network

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