A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket

McHale, Ian G.; Asif, Muhammad

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.09.036

Cited by 20 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Initially much of this work centred on the analysis of football and baseball, and focused on predicting future outcomes but now increasingly looks at gains that might be made by using an optimal strategy. The most famous model-based method that is used in cricket today is, of course, the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern formula Lewis, 1998, 2004;Stern, 2009) for interrupted 1-day cricket matches, with subsequent modification by, for example, McHale and Asif (2013). Other work such as Silva et al (2015) has looked at the effect of powerplay in such matches.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Ranking of Test Match Batsmen

Boys

Philipson

2018

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics

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Summary Ranking sportsmen whose careers took place in different eras is often a contentious issue and the topic of much debate. We focus on cricket and examine what conclusions may be drawn about the ranking of test batsmen by using data on batting scores from the first test in 1877 onwards. The overlapping nature of playing careers is exploited to form a bridge from past to present so that all players can be compared simultaneously, rather than just relative to their contemporaries. The natural variation in runs scored by a batsman is modelled by an additive log‐linear model with year, age and cricket‐specific components used to extract the innate ability of an individual cricketer. Incomplete innings are handled via censoring and a zero‐inflated component is incorporated in the model to allow for an excess of frailty at the start of an innings. The innings‐by‐innings variation of runs scored by each batsman leads to uncertainty in their ranking position. A Bayesian approach is used to fit the model and realizations from the posterior distribution are obtained by deploying a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Posterior summaries of innate player ability are then used to assess uncertainty in ranking position and this is contrasted with rankings determined via the posterior mean runs scored. Posterior predictive checks show that the model provides a reasonably accurate description of runs scored.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Ranking of Test Match Batsmen

Boys

Philipson

2018

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics

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“…This work, in some sense also a forecasting model, culminated in the Duckworth-Lewis method which has been adopted by the International Cricket Council for target resetting in all interrupted limited overs matches. Researchers have also worked on modifications to the Duckworth-Lewis method (Stern, 2009;McHale and Asif, 2013), now known as Duckworth-Lewis-Stern (hence, DLS) method. Jayadevan (2004) also developed a method for resetting the target for an interrupted match.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing In-play Run Chases in Limited Overs Cricket Using Optimized CUSUM Charts

Bose

Chakraborty

2019

Journal of Sports Analytics

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In this paper, we present the application of CUSUM control charts to analyze the outcome of a limited overs cricket match during the second innings. This approach makes use of the target set in the first innings and the runs scored from each ball in the second innings. We have analyzed the ball-by-ball data of 1180 One Day Internationals and 537 T20 Internationals played between 2006 and 2017. To improve the accuracy of our models, we have applied genetic algorithm to generate optimal control chart parameters that maximize the accuracy of the model outcome. Our analyses are found to be correct in 80-89% of ODI matches and 76-84% of T20 matches, depending on the stage of in-play analysis.

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“…Unfortunately, neither of these works have undertaken an extensive study of their approaches for a wide range of situations encountered in practice in T20 games. More recently, McHale and Asif 7 have attempted to compare different approaches, but have concentrated on their performance for ODIs and propose a modified D/L that they claim can be used in both ODIs and T20s. An approach called Yank method has also been proposed in the recent past 8 and while some interesting comparisons with D/L and VJD for T20s are shown, there is no detailed documentation available to comment on its prospects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bio-allometry inspired resource estimation in Twenty20 cricket

Natarajan

2015

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part P:

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A novel heuristic approach to resource estimation and target determination in interrupted and shortened Twenty20 cricket matches is presented. The present approach mimics Kleiber's allometric relation to define the effective resources for a team. Unlike existing methods, the present methodology computes the resources using a simple non-statistical method to decide on the revised target, called the Kleiber target, in interrupted matches. The proposed approach is applied to a wide range of real-match scenarios involving one or more interruptions. Case studies show that the Kleiber target is consistent and reasonable over a spectrum of match situations and offers an inexpensive, robust and elegant methodology to reset targets in shortened Twenty20 matches.

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A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket

Cited by 20 publications

References 7 publications

On the Ranking of Test Match Batsmen

On the Ranking of Test Match Batsmen

Managing In-play Run Chases in Limited Overs Cricket Using Optimized CUSUM Charts

Bio-allometry inspired resource estimation in Twenty20 cricket

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