A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Major Risks in Complex Projects

Cagno, Enrico; Caron, Franco; Mancini, Mauro

doi:10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250014

Cited by 63 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…At first, many scholars carried out statistical methods to deal with the schedule risk and gradually, many concluded that human factors, professional experience and personal judgment were essential for risk evaluation [20]. Moreover, the indicators used to evaluate the risks can be summarized as predictability, exposure, manageability and controllability in the previous literature [21][22][23][24], and risk cost has been used as an important risk impact measurement as well [25][26][27]. In addition, diversified models could be utilized for risk assessment.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An evaluation index system is established based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), in which there are 5 indicators being used to examine the impact of the risks, including traditional indicators as risk probability, risk uncontrollability and duration extension size [22][23][24][25] as well as innovative indicators like risk category and risk responsibility party (Figure 8). In the course of establishing the index system, the authors considered that impact of risks would partly depend on the inherent attributes of risks as the result of risk analysis based on ISM, thus risk category is added as an important indicator.…”

Section: Establishment Of the Evaluation Index Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development

Rao

Zhang

Shi³

et al. 2014

Sustainability

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Schedule risks are the main threat for high efficiency of schedule management in power grid engineering projects (PGEP). This paper aims to build a systematical framework for schedule risk management, which consists of three dimensions, including the personnel dimension, method dimension and time dimension, namely supervisory personnel, management methods and the construction process, respectively. Responsibilities of staff with varied functions are discussed in the supervisory personnel part, and six stages and their corresponding 40 key works are ensured as the time dimension. Risk identification, analysis, evaluation and prevention together formed the method dimension. Based on this framework, 222 schedule risks occur in the whole process of PGEPs are identified via questionnaires and expert interviews. Then, the relationship among each risk is figured out based on the Interpretative Structure Model (ISM) method and the impact of each risk is quantitatively assessed by establishing evaluation system. The actual practice of the proposed framework is verified through the analysis of the first stage of a PGEP. Finally, the results show that this framework of schedule risk management is meaningful for improving the efficiency of project management. It provides managers with a clearer OPEN ACCESS Sustainability 2014, 6 6873 procedure with which to conduct risk management, helps them to timely detect risks and prevent risks from occurring. It is also easy for managers to judge the influence level of each risk, so they can take actions based on the level of each risk's severity. Overall, it is beneficial for power grid enterprises to achieve a sustainable management.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Establishment Of the Evaluation Index Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development

Rao

Zhang

Shi³

et al. 2014

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Alternatively, ''project vulnerability'' is introduced to enhance the recognition of risk consequences. In the same year, Cagno et al (2007) used the PÁI risk model to quantify the cost risk by determining the sources of risks, affected activities, and risk owners. Besides, a three-dimensional risk model called Significance-Probability-Impact was presented where ''significance'' is defined as the degree to which a practitioner assesses risk intuitively.…”

Section: Fuzzy Logic and Fst In Construction Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design and Pilot Run of Fuzzy Synthetic Model (Fsm) for Risk Evaluation in Civil Engineering

Abdul‐Rahman

Chen

Lee

2013

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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Abstract. Most of the current construction risk assessment tools deliver unsatisfactory results because the prerequisite for their effective applications rely on the availability of high quality data especially during the early stage of a project. Unfortunately, such data are limited, ambiguous or even not exist due to the great uncertainty inherent in construction projects. Based on Fuzzy Synthetic Analysis (FSA), a model development team was formed among construction engineers, IT professionals, and Mathematicians in developing a holistic risk assessment model to estimate the construction risks especially for the situations with incomplete data and vague environments. Through qualitative scales defined by triangular fuzzy numbers used in pairwise comparisons to capture the vagueness in the linguistic variables, a risk assessment model using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. The Pilot Run revealed the developed Fuzzy Synthetic Model (FSM) could accelerate the decisionmaking process and provide optimal allocation of project resources to mitigate possible risks detrimental to the success of a project in terms of time, cost, and quality.

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“…-Na mesma linha, para Cagno et al (2007) "Risco de projeto é o efeito da ocorrência de algo (interno ou externo ao projeto) ou da ação de alguém (também interno ou externo ao projeto), cujo potencial para se materializar é ou não conhecido a priori, portanto revestido de incerteza, e cuja materialização impacta de forma positiva ou negativa os resultados esperados do projeto, numa magnitude que pode ou não ser estimada a priori".…”

Section: Risco Em Projetosunclassified

“…Joseph Williams (1993) enfoca o risco de projeto como um elemento associado à incerteza e com potencial para impactar os objetivos de um projeto. Esta é também a linha defendida por Cagno et al (2007), para quem riscos de projetos são eventos incertos que podem ou não ocorrer, mas que, se ocorrem, provocam um impacto significativo sobre os resultados dos projetos. Já Raz et al (2002) se pautam ainda pelo lado negativo e definem riscos de projeto como eventos indesejáveis que podem causar atrasos, gastos excessivos, resultados insatisfatórios, ameaças à segurança ou ao meio ambiente e, até mesmo, o fracasso total do projeto.…”

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Opções reais como instrumento para gerir riscos em projetos complexos de infraestrutura de tecnologia da informação

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A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Major Risks in Complex Projects

Cited by 63 publications

References 6 publications

A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development

A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development

Design and Pilot Run of Fuzzy Synthetic Model (Fsm) for Risk Evaluation in Civil Engineering

Opções reais como instrumento para gerir riscos em projetos complexos de infraestrutura de tecnologia da informação

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